Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011

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Vegas has recently released their over/unders for number of regular season wins for each NFL team. Some of them seem particularly juicy, well I wouldn't touch some of the others with Visanthe Shiancoe's pole.

But since I so desperately aspire to be a gambling junkie, I'm gonna let all my Crodies in on the 10 sure bets on the lot. There will be actual money put down on these teams from Sir Dirkness. And I expect to be atleast 5 bucks richer by season's end. Without further ado...

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011:

1. Miami Dolphins +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

First off, Chad Henne is their quarterback (who I, at first, believed in until I heard that he publicly complained about facing competition for his job). So this year, Henne is hearing "We want Orton" chants at training camp, which Henne claimed "hurt his feelings" (not that there's anything wrong with that). Oy. I'm not ripping the guy for being sensitive, but that's not what I want to hear from my team's QB. Outside of that, the Dolphins lost Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, AND Tyler Thigpen and added almost nobody of note (Reggie Bush has been zung).

Potential pitfall: Anchored by Jake Long, the Dolphins' offensive line might have one of the best in the NFL.

Projected record: 5-11


2. New Orleans Saints +/- 10 wins ~ OVER

I absolutely love the Saints this year, who are flying so far underground that no radar can pick them up because of the Eagles and Packers in the NFC. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram to solidify their running game (and Sproles), and beefed up their defensive interior with Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. And they were the most active team in organizing offseason activities, an unknown X-factor impacting the 2011 season. This team might go 10-6, but they aren't going 9-7 or worse (barring an injury to Brees).

Potential Pitfall: Their cornerbacks are the only potential position of weakness I can find on this team.

Projected record: 13-3


3. Washington Redskins +/- 6.5 wins ~ UNDER

Rex Grossman. John Beck. Tim Hightower. Ryan Torain. Santana Moss. Jabar Gaffney. These are the key skill position contributors for the team (I could've just stopped after Beck). They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL. And nobody there seems to be responding to Mantanahan just yet.

(Note: This is the most lopsided action of any over/unders for the 32 teams).

Potential Pitfall: They play each of the NFC West teams. So they might win 4 games?

Projected Record: 4-12


4. San Diego Chargers +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

Shitty, I know, but I think the Chargers are pissed off about last season. I don't think they believed anybody could top them in the AFC West, and their play from last season proved so. I think they play this season with something to prove from the get go. Vincent Jackson returns, and the quiet additions of Bob Sanders, Takeo Spikes, and Travis LaBoy could be huge. And this is my best effort at a reverse jinx.

Potential Pitfall: All together now.....NORV TURNER! While he may not be our only hope, he certainly is our best hope, Obi Wan.

Projected Record: 11-5

5. San Francisco 49ers +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

The Alex Smith suckfest continues. I can't imagine how tired 9ers fans are of this guy. It's his 7th year in the league! And he hasn't been good for any of them! And he's not even really in competition for his job right now! And....that's enough. This reeks of a team that inserts a rookie QB by midseason, in this case, Colin Kaepernick (he ain't gonna get it done). Initially, I hesitated due to Jim Harbaught, but then I remembered college coaches never do good in the NFL.

Potential Pitfall: Again, the NFC West conundrum, where it seems like any of the teams could put a few pieces together and win 8 games.

Projected Record: 5-11

6. Indianapolis Colts +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

This feels like easy money. Almost like it's too good to be true. I'm almost skeptical because Vegas knows more than everybody else most of the time. However, do you know the last season the Colts finished with under 10 wins? It was 2001. Really the only question is...

Potential Pitfall: Peyton Manning's injury. He has yet to practice this year, and will most likely not play in a single preseason game. I think this slows down their juggernaut offense, but doesn't completely kill it. The pieces are more of the same from last season, which should help. It's hard to imagine the Colts not in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 10-6

7. Minnesota Vikings +/- 6.5 wins ~ OVER

I believe in Donovan F. McNabb (as my QB rankings would lead you to believe). I'll always bet on players that have a lot to prove, in which case, McNasty has more than just about anybody in the league. His receivers aren't great, but they never were in Philly either (but he does have good TE's, ala the Pheagles). Oh, and they have this Adrian Peterson dude. Their D ain't great (because Jared Allen sucks now), but it doesn't have to be to reach 7 wins.

Potential Pitfall: The dreaded bad start/rookie QB combo that might occur with Christian Ponder waiting in the wings (at which point they would have no shot at 7 wins).

Projected Record: 8-8

8. Buffalo Bills +/- 5.5 wins ~ OVER

Call it a love of the bumpkin QB, but I can't get enough of the Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, or Shaun Hill trio (the most underrated QB's in the league). I think Chan Gailey goes mad scientist this year with Brad Smith, CJ Spiller, and Tyler Thigpen at his disposal (all taking snaps at QB). Prediction: You might see a freshly unwrapped, innovative, dazzling offense out of the Bills this season, a system that stems from Gailey's time in KC with the Thigboner. Sorta Vermeil-esque.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Biffalo Buffs, and they haven't smelled success in a while. I'll be damned if they're not better than the Dolphins though.

Projected Record: 9-7

9. Green Bay Packers +/- 11.5 wins ~ UNDER

It's hard to sustain success in the NFL. Everybody will be gunning for the defending champs. Not to mention, they didn't even win 12 games last season. The big question is if the time off from the Lockout will help them or hurt them. In one corner, they didn't have the coaches in their ear, preaching to forget about being champs all offseason. In the other corner...

Potential Pitfall: There has been less time for other teams in the NFL to make significant strides, leading one to believe that the Pack would still be the best team in the league.

Projected Record: 11-5

10. Detroit Lions +/- 7.5 wins ~ OVER

My team for 2011. I like Stafford at QB (and I like Shaun Hill even more at backup QB). I like the backfield combo of Best and Harrison. I like the pickups of Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch at LB. And I LOVE the combo of Ndominant World Order (NwO) and Piggie Fairley in the middle of that defense (even though Fairley is hurt, he should be back for Week 1). My only hesitation is that 7.5 wins is a pretty high number. I must not be the only one on the bandwagon.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Detroit Lions! There's a definite mental hurdle they'll need to clear, preferably early in the season.

Projected Record: 10-6

Sorry I'm not home right now, I'm walking in the spiderwebs,

His Dirkness

2010 NFL Playoff Predictions

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Chiefs playoff preview extravaganza wrapping up later today, with the keys to victory for our CHIEFSSS!!!!

To get you caught up here's links to anything and everything you need to know this week:

• Opening Thoughts on Why Ravens are Better Matchup Than Jets
• Ranking The Playoff Quarterbacks
• Ranking The Playoff Teams
• Breaking Down the Baltimore Ravens

Now for some playoff predictions, which I usually struggle mightily with.....

AFC-

Wildcard Round:

New York Jets over Indianapolis Colts 20-17

Kansas City Chiefs over Baltimore Ravens 20-10

Divisional Round:

New England Patriots over New York Jets 30-14

Pittsburgh Steelers over Kansas City Chiefs 13-7

AFC Championship:

Pittsburgh Steelers over New England Patriots 31-27

NFC-

Wildcard Round:

New Orleans Saints over Seattle Seahawks 24-21

Philadelphia Eagles over Green Bay Packers 28-14

Divisional Round:

New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons 27-10

Philadelphia Eagles over Chicago Bears 23-13

NFC Championship:

Philadelphia Eagles over New Orleans Saints 30-20

Super Bowl:

Pittsburgh Steelers over Philadelphia Eagles 17-13

His Dirkness

Ranking the Playoff Teams

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This is the follow up article to yesterday's Ranking of the Playoff Quarterbacks piece.

The criteria for today's rankings of the playoff teams are based on their chances to win the Super Bowl. This means that even if I have one team above another on this list, that doesn't necessarily mean that I'd pick that team to win that particular game. It just means they'd have a better chance at winning it all. Potential plays a great role in these rankings.

Take it with you......

1. Pittsburgh Steelers- Whaaa? Not the Patriots?!? Nope, no sir, unh-uh. While I acknowledge the advantage the Patriots hold on the offensive side of the ball, as well as the homefield advantage, I cannot go against the best defense in the league. Combine that with a 2-time Super Bowl winning quarterback, and a team that's peaking at the right time, and you have my Super Bowl XLV favorites. Remember, the only reason the Steelers missed the playoffs last year was because Troy Polamalu (the best player in the NFL) got hurt, at which point they fell apart. I'm sure in their minds, they are still the defending Super Bowl champs.

2. New England Patriots- I really believe the Super Bowl may be decided in the AFC Championship Game between the Steelers and Patriots (haven't we been there before?). New England has overachieved all season long, which is a testament to their coaching. They are not a great team. However, they have played great (there's a difference). Now, if they continue to play at that same level, then they will most likely win the Super Bowl, but it is very difficult to maintain that level throughout the NFL playoffs, when you get every team's best shot. This team does feel a lot more like the Patriots teams of old that won Super Bowls, as opposed to the Patriots teams of recent, who have dominated stat sheets, but come up short in the playoffs.

3. New Orleans Saints- Yes, I declare a team that will have to win 3 road games in order to advance to the Super Bowl the favorites in the NFC. I don't believe in either of the teams with bye weeks in the NFC (the exact opposite of the AFC). The Saints are the one team with Super Bowl experience (besides the Seahawks, but they don't count), which goes a long way in the NFL. They are banged up at the running back position, but since when has that been an issue for the Saints? In fact, it's best to feed a back (even if lesser skilled) with fresh legs this time of year (Shonn Greene last season). And don't forget that they are hypothetically the 5th team with a bye week in these playoffs, with their Seattle draw in the opening round.

4. Atlanta Falcons- No, I'm not fully sold on Matt Ryan's iciness. No, I don't believe the Falcons boast a Super Bowl quality defense (although John Abraham would be the reason they could). I think I got overly soured on the Falcons when Merrill Hoge started spouting off about how the only rushing attack better than the Chiefs was that of the Atlanta Falcons. I'm sorry but 1st > 12th, 164.2 > 118.2, and 4.7 > 3.8. All that said, I will be rooting for Tony G to experience some postseason success for the first time in his career. I should like these Falcons, but I just don't. The good news for the Falcons is that I said most of these same things about the New Orleans Saints last season, and things turned out alright for them.

5. Philadelphia Eagles- Has Michael Vick run out of magic? Or was he a little hampered by injuries that have since healed with his week off? If he returns to his midseason form, then the Eagles could become Super Bowl favorites. The problem is, I haven't seen it for a handful of weeks now. I don't think Vick will ever stay healthy for an entire season again if he continues to put his body in harm's way. However, DeSean Jackson (most explosive player in the NFL), Trent Cole (could be NFL's most underrated player), and Asante Samuel (NFL's best playoff CB) give the Eagles the necessary components to make a run. Remember the rules of Andy Reid though: His teams never lose following a bye week (last week was basically a bye week for the Eagles), and he's one of the worst in-game managers in the NFL (forgets that running the ball is an option, challenges are always an adventure, really needs to hire a 25 year old Madden player as a consultant).

6. Green Bay Packers- The Intercontinental Champion (Rodgers) is looking to join the big boys and become the Heavyweight Champion of the World (seriously, Rodgers must've been a huge WWF fan with all his belt signaling). The Packers are easy to figure out, but tough to solve. They can throw the ball around the schoolyard (extraordinarily good YAC!), play stout defense (surprisingly 2nd in the NFL in points allowed), and can't run the ball worth a lick (Hi, I'm John Kuhn). So in order for Rodgers to make the Shawn Michaels leap (besides Superkicking Marty Jannetty through a glass window-check out that mullet), he'll have to be near perfect (very possible).

7. Baltimore Ravens- The Ravens are all about intimidation. If you can get past their scary superficialities, and look deep down into their souls, then they can be beaten. But that's no easy task. They're strategy is to hit you in the mouth and make you beg for mercy in the 1st quarter. They want to make you think you can't run the ball on them, and gobble up turnovers when you believe that fact. They want you to feel that murder is a real possibility with them, but.....well, nevermind. The Ravens force more teams to fold than any other team in the NFL, but teams that have what it takes to stand up to them can defeat them. Also, Joe Flacco's unibrow is heinous.

8. Indianapolis Colts- The similarities between the Colts 2007 Super Bowl Championship team and this year's team are there: 3 seeds, improved run defense over the course of the season, and struggling through their worst regular seasons of the Peyton is God era. However, the similarities end there. Peyton isn't what he used to be. Dallas Clark isn't walking through those doors. Bob Sanders is in an old folks home somewhere. Jim Caldwell is as pointless as a circle. The Colts could beat the Patriots but could not, would not, beat the Steelers.

9. Chicago Bears- I've doubted da Bears throughout the entirety of the season, and I ain't about to quit now. Butt Ugly Jay Cutler is gonna try and do too much and most likely cost the Bears their first playoff game. Anybody remember how he blew the Broncos' playoff opportunities year after year? Man, I do. It was great. However, I am very impressed by the Bears defense, and would probably rank them 2nd behind the Steelers in that category. Also, playoff games in Chicago are always fun. I like the cold, the good fans, and the overwhelming sense of doom that runs throughout the stadium when anything bad happens.

10. New York Jets- Anybody else tired of Rex Ryan's schtick? We get it Rex, you think your team is great, and you can't wait to tell us all about it. I can't wait till your team encounters major adversity and starts to doubt the bullcorn you've been feeding them since you took over. I'm calling Sexy Rexy doesn't last two more years after this season. He might even get fired before then on account of podophilia (8 year olds, Dude). I also can't wait to see Sanchez blow it, L.T. sit out another playoff game, Santonio Holmes celebrate in the midst of an ass-kicking, Bill Callahan make his face like he's about to yawn, or Antonio Cromartie conceive another child during halftime of one of their games.

11. Kansas City Chiefs- Hate to put my beloved Chiefs this low on the list, but they would have to go through #7, #1, and #2 (most likely) just to even get there. I believe the Chiefs could be better than half of the teams in the NFC, but aren't fortunate enough to share the same path. It was very interesting hearing Trent Dilfer (ESPN's best TV guy) on The Sports Guy's podcast this week utter these surprising words, "I think the Chiefs could really give the Patriots some problems." I almost fell back in my chair at work (crashing into all the finest cheap vodkas we have to offer here at Kreitzer Liquors) when I heard that. His explanation centered around Romeo Crennel being able to control Brady. Now all I want is that opportunity to see if he could possibly be right. Dear 6 pound 8 ounce baby Jesus (I like to picture Jesus as an ice dancer, dressed in an all-white jumpsuit, and doing an interpretive dance of my life), please let this happen.

12. Seattle Seahawks- It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks can ride their homefield momentum wave enough to even draw close to the New Orleans Saints. I'm secretly very excited for this game just because of how much this Seabags team has been mocked nationally throughout the week. Aside from that, I would create a rule that says a team must win atleast 9 games to represent your division in the playoffs. In addition, a team would have to win 10 games in order to host a playoff game. This would end the silly charade of a team like Seattle hosting a playoff game in the future, and would create more purpose for late season games that would be lacking meaning without this rule. Win-win.

Go Chiefs!

His Dirkness

NFL Parity and Power Rankings

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It's the return (the turn, turn). The return (turn, turn). It's the return. It's. The. Return. You're welcome OutKast fans. Thankfully, the aspect that the NFL strives to promote so greatly has returned to the league for the 2010 season: Parity.

After watching the Patriots and Colts dominate the AFC for the last ten years, and lasting through the undefeated stints of the Saints (13-0) and Colts (14-0) in 2009, the 2010 NFL season is void of any true favorite (Yes, the Patriots, Colts, and Saints are still around, but not in the same dominating ways of the past). This is when the NFL thrives. It's a league that depends on the names on the front of the jersey. And it's a league that's designed to give every team a chance at the Super Bowl. We remember the 1999 Rams as fondly as the 49ers/Cowboys/Patriots dynasties.

Despite promoting parity, there has been a certain disparity in the league the last ten years. It seems nobody was ready to handle the salary cap upon its inception in the mid 90's. Teams didn't understand how to build around the cap, which ensured that great teams didn't last more than a handful of years. Then the Patriots and Colts figured things out, got star QB's, and broke the NFL mold by contending for championships every year. Since then, teams have slowly caught up (although, still not all the way), and their franchise QB's have grown older. Suddenly new quarterbacks are mentioned in the same breath (Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Thigpen - still nobody mentions Ben Roth Biglisberger).

This will inevitably lead to an exciting finish to the season with all the close division races, and a playoffs that's wide open to all 12 teams (well, 11, minus the NFC West winner). So when all you young'in's are ordering rounds of shots this weekend, make sure you toast to parity, the most underrated aspect in all of sports, and the difference between a good NFL season and a great NFL season (there are no bad NFL seasons, although 2009 was as close as it gets).

Previous NFL Power Rankings:

• Week 3
• Week 7

Week 13 NFL Power Rankings:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. New York Jets
5. New England Patriots
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Chicago Bears
11. New York Giants
12. Kansas City Chiefs
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Indianapolis Colts
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Oakland Raiders
19. Washington Redskins
20. St. Louis Rams
21. Houston Texans
22. Buffalo Bills
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Minnesota Vikings
25. Seattle Seabags
26. Detroit Lions
27. Dallas Cowboys
28. San Francisco 49ers
29. Denver Broncos
30. Arizona Cardinals
31. Cincinnati Bengals
32. Carolina Panthas

Power Ranking Statistical Analysis:

Biggest Risers (compared to my Week 7 Rankings):
1. San Diego Chargers +14
2. Cleveland Browns +12
2. Oakland Raiders +12
4. Jacksonville Jaguars +11
5. Buffalo Bills +10
5. Chicago Bears +10

Biggest Fallers:
1. Tennessee Titans -14
2. Cincinnati Bengals -12
3. Minnesota Vikings -10
4. Seattle Seahawks -8
5. Indianapolis Colts -7

Most Overrated Teams (compared against ESPN's Power Rankings):
1. Baltimore Ravens -4
2. Tennessee Titans -4
3. Houston Texans -4

Most Underrated Teams:
1. Cleveland Browns +7
2. Detroit Lions +5
2. Buffalo Bills +5

H'dirkness