A Silver Lining to Patrick Mahomes' Injury?

I had my first big take of the Kansas City Chiefs 2026 season.

This would formerly be known as Dirk's Big Thing on Amateur Hour. However, now that I'm a father of a two week old, this is more of a Dirk's Useless Thing Dangling Between His Legs.

I was thinking about how Patrick Mahomes' injury might change his game in 2026...

[buzzes in]

Me: Mahomes will look to run less this year (ohhh good answer, good answer)

Steve Harvey: "Top answer on the board! Would you like to pass or play?"

Me: What kinda dumbass question is that Steve? Who would ever pass? Why you even asking?

Which got me to thinking about Mahomes in 2025, when he ran more than he ever has before. The reasons for this are abundant:

The Evolution of the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs

If you’ve heard me on Amateur Hour, or followed me on Twitter, or frequented my LinkedIn profile -- you’ve probably heard me mention the 2019 Chiefs at least a time or two.

For the un-OG’s, this idea originated roughly 30 months ago, early in the offseason of 2017...

The Kansas City Chiefs are winning the Super Bowl in 2019.

This proclamation, this prediction, this prophecy came to me following yet another Chiefs playoff disappointment, staring down another year of Alex Smith at QB with very little cap room in the coming years to provide the perfect supporting cast that he needed to win a championship.

The premise of the 2019 Chiefs was a 4-way intersection where everybody knows their turn and traffic flows seamlessly:

1. A rare collection of young talent entering their primes at very little cost, combined with superstars at the tail end of their primes
2. Veteran contracts coming off the books opening up cap room
3. The inevitable demise of the powerhouse Patriots
4. A quarterback entering his second (playing) year under Andy Reid

2017 NFL Preview: Looking at Improvement vs. Regression

***NERD ALERT***

So I was starting my research for the 2017 NFL Over/Under Challenge - Get in on this - only $30! - when somebody on some podcast who's probably smarter than me (proof: I already forgot who) was talking about regression - they said there were two statistics that most often vary from season to season (meaning: hardest to repeat from year to year): Turnover differential and records in close games. I was intrigued.

As American hero, Dr. Steve Brule would say ... Lets check it out!

2015 Turnover Differential:

I went back to 2015's numbers to see if those teams with the best turnover differential did, in fact, regress in 2016. Here are the top 5 teams, with their win differential from 2015 to 2016:

1. Carolina Panthers: -9 wins
2. Kansas City Chiefs: +1 win
3. Cincinnati Bengals: -6 wins
4. Arizona Cardinals: -6 wins
5. Tie: Seahawks (Even), Patriots (+2 wins), Giants (+5 wins)