NFL Parity and Power Rankings

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It's the return (the turn, turn). The return (turn, turn). It's the return. It's. The. Return. You're welcome OutKast fans. Thankfully, the aspect that the NFL strives to promote so greatly has returned to the league for the 2010 season: Parity.

After watching the Patriots and Colts dominate the AFC for the last ten years, and lasting through the undefeated stints of the Saints (13-0) and Colts (14-0) in 2009, the 2010 NFL season is void of any true favorite (Yes, the Patriots, Colts, and Saints are still around, but not in the same dominating ways of the past). This is when the NFL thrives. It's a league that depends on the names on the front of the jersey. And it's a league that's designed to give every team a chance at the Super Bowl. We remember the 1999 Rams as fondly as the 49ers/Cowboys/Patriots dynasties.

Despite promoting parity, there has been a certain disparity in the league the last ten years. It seems nobody was ready to handle the salary cap upon its inception in the mid 90's. Teams didn't understand how to build around the cap, which ensured that great teams didn't last more than a handful of years. Then the Patriots and Colts figured things out, got star QB's, and broke the NFL mold by contending for championships every year. Since then, teams have slowly caught up (although, still not all the way), and their franchise QB's have grown older. Suddenly new quarterbacks are mentioned in the same breath (Brees, Rivers, Rodgers, Thigpen - still nobody mentions Ben Roth Biglisberger).

This will inevitably lead to an exciting finish to the season with all the close division races, and a playoffs that's wide open to all 12 teams (well, 11, minus the NFC West winner). So when all you young'in's are ordering rounds of shots this weekend, make sure you toast to parity, the most underrated aspect in all of sports, and the difference between a good NFL season and a great NFL season (there are no bad NFL seasons, although 2009 was as close as it gets).

Previous NFL Power Rankings:

• Week 3
• Week 7

Week 13 NFL Power Rankings:

1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. New York Jets
5. New England Patriots
6. Philadelphia Eagles
7. Green Bay Packers
8. Baltimore Ravens
9. San Diego Chargers
10. Chicago Bears
11. New York Giants
12. Kansas City Chiefs
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Indianapolis Colts
15. Miami Dolphins
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Oakland Raiders
19. Washington Redskins
20. St. Louis Rams
21. Houston Texans
22. Buffalo Bills
23. Tennessee Titans
24. Minnesota Vikings
25. Seattle Seabags
26. Detroit Lions
27. Dallas Cowboys
28. San Francisco 49ers
29. Denver Broncos
30. Arizona Cardinals
31. Cincinnati Bengals
32. Carolina Panthas

Power Ranking Statistical Analysis:

Biggest Risers (compared to my Week 7 Rankings):
1. San Diego Chargers +14
2. Cleveland Browns +12
2. Oakland Raiders +12
4. Jacksonville Jaguars +11
5. Buffalo Bills +10
5. Chicago Bears +10

Biggest Fallers:
1. Tennessee Titans -14
2. Cincinnati Bengals -12
3. Minnesota Vikings -10
4. Seattle Seahawks -8
5. Indianapolis Colts -7

Most Overrated Teams (compared against ESPN's Power Rankings):
1. Baltimore Ravens -4
2. Tennessee Titans -4
3. Houston Texans -4

Most Underrated Teams:
1. Cleveland Browns +7
2. Detroit Lions +5
2. Buffalo Bills +5

H'dirkness

What do we have in Matt Cassel?

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The Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback has been everything we've been asking for over the past month. In fact, no NFL quarterback has posted a higher QB rating since the calendar page flipped to October. Matt Cassel has given us two of his best performances of his career the past two weeks to silence the critics that were growing louder by the week. All you heard the first four weeks of the season was how good the Chiefs could be if they had a good QB. Cassel has quietly put together some solid stats though, and there has never been any question about his dedication to the team or his passion to win.

Tell me if this picture, combined with his recent behavior, reminds you of anyone?

The feistiness. The fire. The fist pumps. The over-exuberance. The dorkiness. It could only be one man: Jake Delhomme. Look, Delhomme was not the most talented quarterback to come along, but he inspired his teammates and they believed in him. They went to battle with him because they knew how much he wanted to win. Jake the Snake came into the league under similar circumstances as Cassel (Delhomme undrafted, Cassel a 7th round pick). Delhomme didn't get his first chance to lead a team until 28 (Cassel at 26). They were both counted out and have both shown an incredible amount of heart. Delhomme, paired with a strong running game and stout defense, led his Carolina Panther team to a Super Bowl. Can Matt Cassel be our Jake Delhomme?

The three main responsibilities of a quarterback are:

1. Be efficient on 3rd downs.

2. Avoid mistakes like interceptions, fumbles, and sacks

3. Be at your best in the 4th quarter.

So how is Cassel fairing in these three categories? Let's dive into it....

1. Third Downs:

• Cassel's stats on 3rd downs: 25-47, 328 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 89.7 QB rating.
• Chiefs 3rd down conversion rate: 29-77, 37.7%, 21st in NFL.
• Chiefs 3rd down conversion rate (last 2 games): 15-27, 55%, would be good enough for #1 in NFL.
• Analysis: Cassel has shown improvement over the last two games. The third down stats are a bit skewed because of our inability to run for 3rd and short yardage (which is perplexing given our gaudy rushing game stats). This is, and will continue to be, the ultimate judgment stat on Cassel in my eyes.
• Grade: C+ (would've been D two games ago)

2. Avoid Mistakes:

• Cassel's fumbles: 1 fumble (you might remember this as the play he fumbled twice), 0 fumbles lost: Chiefs have fewest fumbles and fumbles lost in the NFL.
• Cassel's INT's: 3 interceptions: Tied for 3rd best in NFL
• Cassel's sacks: 5 sacks (fewest in the NFL!).
• Analysis: Cassel's worst trait coming into this year was his affinity for getting sacked. Leading the league in that category is astonishing and speaks for both Cassel and the offensive line's improvement. The lack of interceptions and fumbles is just gravy on top. I had no idea the Chiefs were that effective in these categories until I looked them up.
• Grade: A+

3. 4th Quarter:

• Cassel's 4th quarter stats: 23-42, 225 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 78.0 QB rating.
• Cassel's 2nd half stats: 43-72, 586 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT, 108.9 QB rating.
• Cassel's stats in last 2 minutes of half: 15-25, 196 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 81.4 QB rating.
• Analysis: Cassel has been good but not great in the 4th quarter. He played mistake free in the 4th against San Diego (partial credit). He put together somewhat of a game-winning drive in the 4th quarter against Cleveland (full credit). He couldn't come up with a play against Indianapolis (full blame). The Texans game came down to a called pass play on 3rd and 2, where I'm not sure how much choice Cassel had in the matter, with the primary receiver smothered (partial blame). Jacksonville and San Francisco games were already decided. Adding it up, it's a complete wash.
• Grade: C

Other intriguing situation stats from Matty Ice (geek alert!):

• When throwing "Wide Left" (2010): 11-30, 143 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 46.9 QB rating.
• When throwing on 4th down (2010): 3-4, 31 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 136.5 QB rating.
• When throwing on 4th down (career): 18-24, 186 yards, 7 TD, 2 INT, 101.7 QB rating.
• When throwing with a lead in the game (2010): 108.0 QB rating.
• When throwing when behind in the game (2010): 65.9 QB rating.
• All 3 INT's of 2010 have happened in the 2nd quarter.
• Cassel actually posts his lowest QB rating on 1st down (71.9), universally considered the friendliest QB down.

His Deyirknessssss

Quick NFL Picks ~ Week 1

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I plan on picking every NFL game this year and keeping a running total of my record. My goal for the year is 66% correct. If I reach this goal, I will be assisting in the labor negotiations currently in a struggle between the players and owners. If not, than a strike there shall be. Here they is...

NEW ORLEANS over Minnesota (already predicted)-W
Cleveland over TAMPA BAY-L
Miami over BUFFALO-W
Cincinnati over NEW ENGLAND-L
Indianapolis over HOUSTON-L
JACKSONVILLE over Denver-W
Atlanta over PITTSBURGH-L
TENNESSEE over Oakland-W
NY GIANTS over Carolina-W
Detroit over CHICAGO-L
ST. LOUIS over Arizona-L
Green Bay over PHILADELPHIA-W
San Francisco over SEATTLE-L
WASHINGTON over Dallas-W
Baltimore over NY JETS-W
KANSAS CITY over San Diego (gotta do it!)-W


Notes:
-Taking 9 of 16 road teams
-Taking 7 of 16 underdogs

I aim to keep track of my picks through a variety of designations, such as underdog picks, home/road picks, records for each team, etc. If you have any other interesting ideas on ways to keep track of my results, let me know please. I'm very open to ideas, and love statistical analysis.

Dirk Noss