Breaking Down the Chiefs 2011 Schedule (Part One)

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There's been a lot of talk surrounding the perceived difficulties of the Kansas City Chiefs 2011 schedule. I'm not buying it. And frankly, it's getting as annoying to listen to as Tim Tebow's daily depth chart updates. The only reason that it's even a concern is because the Chiefs had one of the easiest schedules of all time last season. This year, the schedule is just back to normal, that's all. So the next time you're at a party and Generic Chiefs Guy walks up to you and (inevitably) mentions the schedule in the first 30 seconds of the conversation, be sure to do all of us a favor, grab the nearest pie, and throw it at him.

Breaking down the Chiefs' 2011 opponents:

Week 1: Buffalo Bills
2010 Record: 4-12
Stock Watch: Sprouting
What's New: Mucho local ties as (former Chiefs Offensive Coordinator) Chan Chan the Man Man is gettin' Thiggy wit it in 2011. They also brought in The Hyphen, Brad Smith.
Outlook: If the Chiefs are serious about building on last year's success, the season opener at Arrowhead Stadium is a must win. However, the Bills should've beaten us at home last season and will be hungry for a victory.
Win Potential: 85%

Week 2: @Detroit Lions
2010 Record: 6-10
Stock Watch: Awakening
What's New: For starters, expectations for the Lions. Elsewhere, the Ndamukongs brought in a few nice additions (Jerome Harrison, Stephen Tulloch), but the biggest pickup was 1st rounder DT Nick Fairley (who might not yet be healthy by this game).
Outlook: This will be an excellent barometer of where both of these teams are at. The Lions will be a very popular pick as a team to surprise in 2011. There's no telling how this young group deals with expectations, but a good start will be pivotal. This is a bigger game for the Lions than it is the Chiefs.
Win Potential: 51%

Week 3: @San Diego Chargers
2010 Record: 9-7
Stock Watch: Surfacing
What's New: WR Vincent Jackson returns to the team full time (which will be huge), Takeo Spikes provides the defense with veteran leadership (which they sorely needed), and Bob Sanders could be the biggest signing of the offseason (IF he can stay healthy).
Outlook: If the Chiefs can go into this difficult road game at 2-0 (43.35% probability), they can play with a nothing to lose type of attitude. If not, this game will determine early season control of the AFC West. Either way, we won't have to watch Crodie Broyle squirm his way this game, so in a way, we all win.
Win Potential: 20%

Week 4: Minnesota Vikings
2010 Record: 6-10
Stock Watch: Trickling
What's New: Donovan F. McNasty, who is my preseason favorite for NFL Comeback Player of the Year. Also, the illustrious return of Jared Allen, who I would love to hurl obscenities at for 3 1/2 hours.
Outlook: This game seems like a gimme on paper, but it's level of sandwichness scares me. My biggest worry with this Chiefs team might be their (in)ability to stop the run. Well, Adrian Peterson is bound to get abused in an LJ type of way this year. Plus, I don't think the Chiefs have ever beaten a McNabb led team.
Win Potential: 68%

Week 5: @Indianapolis Colts
2010 Record: 10-6
Stock Watch: Descending
What's New: Peyton Manning done falled down and hurted his neck. His status for Week 1 is unknown as of now. Their offense will take some time to get in synch, but should be rounding into form around this time.
Outlook: The Chiefs missed their chance to send a message to the rest of the league by topping the Colts in Indy last season. A win this season would go a long ways towards legitimizing the Chiefs as an AFC powerhouse for the foreseeable future.
Win Potential: 30%

Week 6 BYE - The seemingly annual too-early-in-the-season bye week for the Chiefs. Most likely scenario at this point in the season: 3-2.

Week 7: @Oakland Raiders
2010 Record: 8-8
Stock Watch: Black Holed
What's New: Not a lot of additions to report here, but the team did lose 3 of their best players in Nnamdi Asomugha, Zach Miller, and Robert Gallery. Not to mention, they fired their head coach who seemed to finally bring some stability to the organization.
Outlook: This begins the easy portion of the schedule. The Chiefs should be favored in the next four games (before possibly being the underdog in the following 5). The game in Oak town always comes down to the wire, and I, for one, haven't forgotten the name Jacoby Ford.
Win Potential: 55%

Week 8: San Diego Chargers
2010 Record: 9-7
Stock Watch: Levitating
What's New: Didn't mention earlier that the team parted ways with Darren Sproley Poley.
Outlook: Monday Night Football. Halloween night. 100% chance I'll be in attendance with a Kentucky Tavern filled flask in my nantucket. If the Chiefs have aspirations of winning the AFC West this game is a must win (unless they shock them in Diego). KC's playoff fate might be known after these back to back toss up games.
Win Potential: 45%

Week 9: Miami Dolphins
2010 Record: 7-9
Stock Watch: Plummeting
What's New: All the news is at running back here. Ricky Williams and Ron Brown are gone. And in comes local boy Daniel Thomas (potential Offensive Rookie of the Year) and, wait for it.........Larry Johnson!
Outlook: The easiest game on the schedule for the Chiefs (followed by the next easiest the week after), the Dolphins should win no more than 5 games this season. If KC loses this one, they have no business even dreaming of the playoffs.
Win Potential: 90%

According to my calculations the Chiefs will sit at 4.44 - 3.56 at this point in the season. So if we're 4-3-1 you all owe me a burrito.

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011

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Vegas has recently released their over/unders for number of regular season wins for each NFL team. Some of them seem particularly juicy, well I wouldn't touch some of the others with Visanthe Shiancoe's pole.

But since I so desperately aspire to be a gambling junkie, I'm gonna let all my Crodies in on the 10 sure bets on the lot. There will be actual money put down on these teams from Sir Dirkness. And I expect to be atleast 5 bucks richer by season's end. Without further ado...

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011:

1. Miami Dolphins +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

First off, Chad Henne is their quarterback (who I, at first, believed in until I heard that he publicly complained about facing competition for his job). So this year, Henne is hearing "We want Orton" chants at training camp, which Henne claimed "hurt his feelings" (not that there's anything wrong with that). Oy. I'm not ripping the guy for being sensitive, but that's not what I want to hear from my team's QB. Outside of that, the Dolphins lost Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, AND Tyler Thigpen and added almost nobody of note (Reggie Bush has been zung).

Potential pitfall: Anchored by Jake Long, the Dolphins' offensive line might have one of the best in the NFL.

Projected record: 5-11


2. New Orleans Saints +/- 10 wins ~ OVER

I absolutely love the Saints this year, who are flying so far underground that no radar can pick them up because of the Eagles and Packers in the NFC. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram to solidify their running game (and Sproles), and beefed up their defensive interior with Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. And they were the most active team in organizing offseason activities, an unknown X-factor impacting the 2011 season. This team might go 10-6, but they aren't going 9-7 or worse (barring an injury to Brees).

Potential Pitfall: Their cornerbacks are the only potential position of weakness I can find on this team.

Projected record: 13-3


3. Washington Redskins +/- 6.5 wins ~ UNDER

Rex Grossman. John Beck. Tim Hightower. Ryan Torain. Santana Moss. Jabar Gaffney. These are the key skill position contributors for the team (I could've just stopped after Beck). They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL. And nobody there seems to be responding to Mantanahan just yet.

(Note: This is the most lopsided action of any over/unders for the 32 teams).

Potential Pitfall: They play each of the NFC West teams. So they might win 4 games?

Projected Record: 4-12


4. San Diego Chargers +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

Shitty, I know, but I think the Chargers are pissed off about last season. I don't think they believed anybody could top them in the AFC West, and their play from last season proved so. I think they play this season with something to prove from the get go. Vincent Jackson returns, and the quiet additions of Bob Sanders, Takeo Spikes, and Travis LaBoy could be huge. And this is my best effort at a reverse jinx.

Potential Pitfall: All together now.....NORV TURNER! While he may not be our only hope, he certainly is our best hope, Obi Wan.

Projected Record: 11-5

5. San Francisco 49ers +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

The Alex Smith suckfest continues. I can't imagine how tired 9ers fans are of this guy. It's his 7th year in the league! And he hasn't been good for any of them! And he's not even really in competition for his job right now! And....that's enough. This reeks of a team that inserts a rookie QB by midseason, in this case, Colin Kaepernick (he ain't gonna get it done). Initially, I hesitated due to Jim Harbaught, but then I remembered college coaches never do good in the NFL.

Potential Pitfall: Again, the NFC West conundrum, where it seems like any of the teams could put a few pieces together and win 8 games.

Projected Record: 5-11

6. Indianapolis Colts +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

This feels like easy money. Almost like it's too good to be true. I'm almost skeptical because Vegas knows more than everybody else most of the time. However, do you know the last season the Colts finished with under 10 wins? It was 2001. Really the only question is...

Potential Pitfall: Peyton Manning's injury. He has yet to practice this year, and will most likely not play in a single preseason game. I think this slows down their juggernaut offense, but doesn't completely kill it. The pieces are more of the same from last season, which should help. It's hard to imagine the Colts not in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 10-6

7. Minnesota Vikings +/- 6.5 wins ~ OVER

I believe in Donovan F. McNabb (as my QB rankings would lead you to believe). I'll always bet on players that have a lot to prove, in which case, McNasty has more than just about anybody in the league. His receivers aren't great, but they never were in Philly either (but he does have good TE's, ala the Pheagles). Oh, and they have this Adrian Peterson dude. Their D ain't great (because Jared Allen sucks now), but it doesn't have to be to reach 7 wins.

Potential Pitfall: The dreaded bad start/rookie QB combo that might occur with Christian Ponder waiting in the wings (at which point they would have no shot at 7 wins).

Projected Record: 8-8

8. Buffalo Bills +/- 5.5 wins ~ OVER

Call it a love of the bumpkin QB, but I can't get enough of the Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, or Shaun Hill trio (the most underrated QB's in the league). I think Chan Gailey goes mad scientist this year with Brad Smith, CJ Spiller, and Tyler Thigpen at his disposal (all taking snaps at QB). Prediction: You might see a freshly unwrapped, innovative, dazzling offense out of the Bills this season, a system that stems from Gailey's time in KC with the Thigboner. Sorta Vermeil-esque.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Biffalo Buffs, and they haven't smelled success in a while. I'll be damned if they're not better than the Dolphins though.

Projected Record: 9-7

9. Green Bay Packers +/- 11.5 wins ~ UNDER

It's hard to sustain success in the NFL. Everybody will be gunning for the defending champs. Not to mention, they didn't even win 12 games last season. The big question is if the time off from the Lockout will help them or hurt them. In one corner, they didn't have the coaches in their ear, preaching to forget about being champs all offseason. In the other corner...

Potential Pitfall: There has been less time for other teams in the NFL to make significant strides, leading one to believe that the Pack would still be the best team in the league.

Projected Record: 11-5

10. Detroit Lions +/- 7.5 wins ~ OVER

My team for 2011. I like Stafford at QB (and I like Shaun Hill even more at backup QB). I like the backfield combo of Best and Harrison. I like the pickups of Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch at LB. And I LOVE the combo of Ndominant World Order (NwO) and Piggie Fairley in the middle of that defense (even though Fairley is hurt, he should be back for Week 1). My only hesitation is that 7.5 wins is a pretty high number. I must not be the only one on the bandwagon.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Detroit Lions! There's a definite mental hurdle they'll need to clear, preferably early in the season.

Projected Record: 10-6

Sorry I'm not home right now, I'm walking in the spiderwebs,

His Dirkness