So I was starting my research for the 2017 NFL Over/Under Challenge - Get in on this - only $30! - when somebody on some podcast who's probably smarter than me (proof: I already forgot who) was talking about regression - they said there were two statistics that most often vary from season to season (meaning: hardest to repeat from year to year): Turnover differential and records in close games. I was intrigued.
As American hero, Dr. Steve Brule would say ... Lets check it out!
2015 Turnover Differential:
I went back to 2015's numbers to see if those teams with the best turnover differential did, in fact, regress in 2016. Here are the top 5 teams, with their win differential from 2015 to 2016:
- Carolina Panthers: -9 wins
- Kansas City Chiefs: +1 win
- Cincinnati Bengals: -6 wins
- Arizona Cardinals: -6 wins
- Tie: Seahawks (Even), Patriots (+2 wins), Giants (+5 wins)
