Friday, August 19, 2011

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011

Vegas has recently released their over/unders for number of regular season wins for each NFL team. Some of them seem particularly juicy, well I wouldn't touch some of the others with Visanthe Shiancoe's pole.

But since I so desperately aspire to be a gambling junkie, I'm gonna let all my Crodies in on the 10 sure bets on the lot. There will be actual money put down on these teams from Sir Dirkness. And I expect to be atleast 5 bucks richer by season's end. Without further ado...

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011:

1. Miami Dolphins +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

First off, Chad Henne is their quarterback (who I, at first, believed in until I heard that he publicly complained about facing competition for his job). So this year, Henne is hearing "We want Orton" chants at training camp, which Henne claimed "hurt his feelings" (not that there's anything wrong with that). Oy. I'm not ripping the guy for being sensitive, but that's not what I want to hear from my team's QB. Outside of that, the Dolphins lost Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, AND Tyler Thigpen and added almost nobody of note (Reggie Bush has been zung).

Potential pitfall: Anchored by Jake Long, the Dolphins' offensive line might have one of the best in the NFL.

Projected record: 5-11

2. New Orleans Saints +/- 10 wins ~ OVER

I absolutely love the Saints this year, who are flying so far underground that no radar can pick them up because of the Eagles and Packers in the NFC. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram to solidify their running game (and Sproles), and beefed up their defensive interior with Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. And they were the most active team in organizing offseason activities, an unknown X-factor impacting the 2011 season. This team might go 10-6, but they aren't going 9-7 or worse (barring an injury to Brees).

Potential Pitfall: Their cornerbacks are the only potential position of weakness I can find on this team.

Projected record: 13-3

3. Washington Redskins +/- 6.5 wins ~ UNDER

Rex Grossman. John Beck. Tim Hightower. Ryan Torain. Santana Moss. Jabar Gaffney. These are the key skill position contributors for the team (I could've just stopped after Beck). They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL. And nobody there seems to be responding to Mantanahan just yet.

(Note: This is the most lopsided action of any over/unders for the 32 teams).

Potential Pitfall: They play each of the NFC West teams. So they might win 4 games?

Projected Record: 4-12

4. San Diego Chargers +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

Shitty, I know, but I think the Chargers are pissed off about last season. I don't think they believed anybody could top them in the AFC West, and their play from last season proved so. I think they play this season with something to prove from the get go. Vincent Jackson returns, and the quiet additions of Bob Sanders, Takeo Spikes, and Travis LaBoy could be huge. And this is my best effort at a reverse jinx.

Potential Pitfall: All together now.....NORV TURNER! While he may not be our only hope, he certainly is our best hope, Obi Wan.

Projected Record: 11-5

5. San Francisco 49ers +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

The Alex Smith suckfest continues. I can't imagine how tired 9ers fans are of this guy. It's his 7th year in the league! And he hasn't been good for any of them! And he's not even really in competition for his job right now! And....that's enough. This reeks of a team that inserts a rookie QB by midseason, in this case, Colin Kaepernick (he ain't gonna get it done). Initially, I hesitated due to Jim Harbaught, but then I remembered college coaches never do good in the NFL.

Potential Pitfall: Again, the NFC West conundrum, where it seems like any of the teams could put a few pieces together and win 8 games.

Projected Record: 5-11

6. Indianapolis Colts +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

This feels like easy money. Almost like it's too good to be true. I'm almost skeptical because Vegas knows more than everybody else most of the time. However, do you know the last season the Colts finished with under 10 wins? It was 2001. Really the only question is...

Potential Pitfall: Peyton Manning's injury. He has yet to practice this year, and will most likely not play in a single preseason game. I think this slows down their juggernaut offense, but doesn't completely kill it. The pieces are more of the same from last season, which should help. It's hard to imagine the Colts not in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 10-6

7. Minnesota Vikings +/- 6.5 wins ~ OVER

I believe in Donovan F. McNabb (as my QB rankings would lead you to believe). I'll always bet on players that have a lot to prove, in which case, McNasty has more than just about anybody in the league. His receivers aren't great, but they never were in Philly either (but he does have good TE's, ala the Pheagles). Oh, and they have this Adrian Peterson dude. Their D ain't great (because Jared Allen sucks now), but it doesn't have to be to reach 7 wins.

Potential Pitfall: The dreaded bad start/rookie QB combo that might occur with Christian Ponder waiting in the wings (at which point they would have no shot at 7 wins).

Projected Record: 8-8

8. Buffalo Bills +/- 5.5 wins ~ OVER

Call it a love of the bumpkin QB, but I can't get enough of the Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, or Shaun Hill trio (the most underrated QB's in the league). I think Chan Gailey goes mad scientist this year with Brad Smith, CJ Spiller, and Tyler Thigpen at his disposal (all taking snaps at QB). Prediction: You might see a freshly unwrapped, innovative, dazzling offense out of the Bills this season, a system that stems from Gailey's time in KC with the Thigboner. Sorta Vermeil-esque.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Biffalo Buffs, and they haven't smelled success in a while. I'll be damned if they're not better than the Dolphins though.

Projected Record: 9-7

9. Green Bay Packers +/- 11.5 wins ~ UNDER

It's hard to sustain success in the NFL. Everybody will be gunning for the defending champs. Not to mention, they didn't even win 12 games last season. The big question is if the time off from the Lockout will help them or hurt them. In one corner, they didn't have the coaches in their ear, preaching to forget about being champs all offseason. In the other corner...

Potential Pitfall: There has been less time for other teams in the NFL to make significant strides, leading one to believe that the Pack would still be the best team in the league.

Projected Record: 11-5

10. Detroit Lions +/- 7.5 wins ~ OVER

My team for 2011. I like Stafford at QB (and I like Shaun Hill even more at backup QB). I like the backfield combo of Best and Harrison. I like the pickups of Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch at LB. And I LOVE the combo of Ndominant World Order (NwO) and Piggie Fairley in the middle of that defense (even though Fairley is hurt, he should be back for Week 1). My only hesitation is that 7.5 wins is a pretty high number. I must not be the only one on the bandwagon.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Detroit Lions! There's a definite mental hurdle they'll need to clear, preferably early in the season.

Projected Record: 10-6

Sorry I'm not home right now, I'm walking in the spiderwebs,
His Dirkness


Anonymous said...

1.)Yea you nailed the Dolphins they gonna suck and the zing on ye ole Reggie was awesome!

2.)New Orleans getting Sproles I think is going to be huge cause he is a huge upgrade at catching out of the backfield which just gives Bree's another weapon.

3.) I think you are going to whiff on the Redskins for the simple fact that I don't care if they have talent or not the second year in a Mantanahan system means they are going to run the shit out of the ball and have to put some poor running back out to pasture when all is said and done. Tatum Bell, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell...who the hell were these guys and were they ever good after.

4.) Fuck the Chargers Norv sucks and Rivers is a biatch I'm going to be a homer and say the Chiefs have a much better run organization. So much so that we will be out of SD's reach. I think they will start out slow get whooped by NE fall flat on their face and implode like an NFL team never has. Here's to wishful thinking, but they don't get 10 wins.

5.) Yea...Alex Smith terrible

6.) The neck injury concerns me, but I think it's just a terrible bet to go against Peyton. A human I could make a bet against, but since he's a robot I dare not.

7.) Brad Childress is too inconsistent and McNabb is done. They won't make the playoffs. 6-10

8.) Chan Gailey is the NFL's answer to Mike Leech. A good coach and they gt at least 6 wins if not 7.

9.) Packers are damn good and Aaron Rodgers is maybe the best young QB in the league plus has already won a superbowl. I'm going to take over and say they at least win 12 games.

10.) Lions have been improving in recent years. I don't know if I'm sold on Stafford as much as you are, but I am completely sold and re-upppped on Ndominant One Suh Ling. Schwarz not a bad coach and seems consistent which I think is important at any level of sports.

That's it that's all I'm out

Dr. Zaveous Ludwig Von Mises

Prose Before Hos said...

A lot of people are down the Colts, which is absurd. (Big)If Tommie Harris and Ernie Sims are healthy, that defense will be faster and more destructive than ever.

The Saints are going to be ridiculous. That stable of running backs is deeper than... well... some deep ass shit. Where they're going to beat people, however, is on defense. You mentioned a couple big signings, but don't forget Cam Jordan, Martez Wilson and Greg Romeus.

The rest is pretty much right on, though I don't believe in the Lions yet and the Chargers can suck my asshole.

His Dirkness said...

Commenteer name of the year goes to Prose Before Hos!

Reveal yourself and come get a free His Dirkness generi-beer anytime day or night!


DBZ said...

1) Dolphins- apparently you didn't notice that Larry Johnson is on their roster at the moment. Joking aside, I think they'll finish 7-9 for the 3rd season in a row. Not good enough to hit the over, but they'll get more than 5 wins.

2) Saints- Does seem like too sure of a bet. Maybe Brees is getting a little old? It's always tough to predict when the season a QB falls off will be. That's the only thing I think could keep them from getting 10 wins.

3) Redskins- Torain will be very good if he stays healthy, which has always been a problem for him. I don't know enough about them to argue with you.

4) Chargers- Those are some nice additions. Agreed on the over.

5) 49ers- Yup, should suck.

6) Colts- That does seem low, but I guess people have been talking about what a big difference Bob Sanders makes for a long time. He's also missed most of the last two seasons and they have done fine record wise. Agreed. Over.

7) Vikings- I can't believe Vikings are this low. They sure convinced people that thought they were a superbowl contender last year pretty thoroughly that they aren't I guess.

8) Bills- I think you should pay more attention to your potential pitfall. Probably over, but 9 wins?

9) Packers- Fo sho unda. They'll have a mark on them and people seem to think that just because they ended last year hot, they will continue that way all season.

10) Lions- Tough call. I'd have to see them turn the corner before I bet on them.

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