Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Preview

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The current national perception of the Nebraska Cornhuskers is that they can't win the big game. There's little doubt that Bo Pelini's resume is lacking that signature win (partly because Missouri always falls apart after Nebraska beats them). Tonight is a great opportunity for Bo and the 'Skers to make a statement to the rest of the Big Ten. "We may be new, but make no mistake, this is OUR conference."

That being said, I feel good about this game. It feels like the pressure is off of Nebraska (Wisconsin now a 10 point favorite). Almost nobody (and their mother) has the Huskers winning tonight (although Lee Corso just did). Pelini may have learned his lesson from putting too much pressure on his own team against Texas last season, so he has been downplaying everything about this historic game for the Huskers (read about it here). Good move, Bo.

My biggest fear about the game is the Wisconsin running game. The Blackshirts' run defense has been rather un-stout (more like a Belgian White) so far this year. The Badgers will attack you with run, run, run, and then hit you with a playaction over the top. I trust the discipline of the Husker defense, I'm just skeptical of their ability to stop the run. However, the Blackshirts haven't been at full health yet this year. Tonight should be the first game that both CB Alfonzo Dennard and DT Jared Crick will both be on the field (Fonz missed first three, Crick last week). It could make a huge difference to have all three leaders of the defense (combined with LB Lavonte David) on the field at once.

How bout some stats...

~~Stats you need to know~~

• Taylor Martinez is 12-4 as a starter. He has averaged 113 rushing yards per game in his 12 career victories. In his 4 losses, he's averaged 7.25 yards per game.
• T-Mart's 2011 numbers running the option: 19 attempts, 175 yards, 3 touchdowns.
• Nebraska's 2nd half rushing totals the last two weeks: 217 (vs. Washington), 220 (vs. Wyoming).
• Wisconsin is 1 of 3 teams in the nation to average 240 yards both passing and rushing (Baylor, Missouri).
• Since the start of 2010, Russell Wilson leads all quarterbacks with 16 first down runs on 3rd and 5+.

Key Matchup: Wisconsin WR Nick Toon vs. Nebraska CB Alfonzo Dennard - A favorable matchup (if the Fonz is 100% - he looked good last week) for the Huskers, as they can match strength vs. strength on the Badgers' biggest weapon. I expect Dennard to follow Toon (son of Tecmo Bowl star Al Toon!) all over the field. This is a matchup you could see on future Sundays.

X-Factor: The Nebraska specialty teams - The Huskers might need a big play out of the kicking game tonight. They definitely have the tools. Returner Ameer Abdullah is explosive (averaging 42.5 yards per kick return). K Brett Maher is 8 of 9 on the year, and his only miss was from 50+ and it even looked good to me (but you couldn't tell because of those damn short goalposts in Wyoming).

Keep Your Eye On: Nebraska WR Jamal Turner - Recruited to play QB, this dynamic freshman is like butter when he gets the ball in the open field. He will be one of the most exciting players in College Football over the next four years of his career.

Everybody is on Wisconsin because they've dominated all of their games up to this point, but might that actually be a condemnation? First off, the Badgers' best opponent (Northern Illinois) was beaten by Kansas. Second off, they haven't played a meaningful snap in the second half. Meanwhile, Nebraska has broken open two close games after the intermission, and then dealt with an undefeated Wyoming team last week. This is why...

If the game is close, I'm taking Nebraska.

Unfortunately...

I don't think the game will be close enough. I'm afraid the Blackshirts have been faulty up to this point, but not bad enough to make any defiant changes. It's best to know your weaknesses and I'm not sure if Nebraska views anything as a problem yet. It all comes down to whether the Huskers can stop the Badgers ground game tonight. If they can, I expect a close game and a Nebraska victory. But if they can't...

Prediction: Wisconsin over Nebraska 30-17*

*However, if the Huskers come out in the much-rumored black uniforms ("oops" photo preview can be seen here in the top left corner), to match the expected 30,000 Nebraska fans in Madison tonight, I'll take the Huskers in a landslide.

Go Big Red,

his Dirkness

Huskers Overrated (...For Now)

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I have yet to write anything about my beloved Nebraska Cornhuskers' first couple games, and with my other team currently marred in seasonal depression disorder, this seems like the perfect time to do so.

The Nebraska Cornhuskers, currently ranked 10th in the poll that matters, are simply overrated.

For now.

Lets start out with the one big positive of the season for the Big Red - Taylor Martinez. He's fast again! And he's currently 3rd in the nation in rushing yards. The biggest question coming into this season was whether T-Mart's ineffectiveness over the second half of the 2010 season was actually due to his injured knee/ankle or because of the demons in his head. While you can't say that he's exercised 100% of those demons, it certainly seems like he's back to pre-injury form. The problem now, is that usually when your team's biggest question mark is answered favorably, they're due for a promising season. However, that's not the case with this Nebraska team. Here's why...

The Probs:

• The playmakers are there on offense, but they are all young. WR Jamal Turner made the biggest play of the game last week with a 43 yard reception. Ameer Abdullah took a kick return to the house in what should be his first of many. Super recruits Aaron Green and Braylon Heard have yet to make a big impact, but have serious potential. The good news? All are freshmen. The bad news? It's hard to say if they'll be able to provide enough for the team this season, and the team may not have enough game changers without them.
• The interior offensive line couldn't open holes against Fresno State, to the point where running between the tackles became pointless. That's not a good sign, and is an even worse sign when it comes against a team from the WAC.
• The defensive line has been largely disappointing. Jared Crick has looked alright, but certainly hasn't lived up to the hype of a potential Nagurski Award winner. After appearing to be almost unblockable in the first week, Cameron Meredith's name was hardly called against the Bulldogs. The most worrisome part of the line is their inability to stop the run right now, with even Tennessee Chattanooga ripping off chunks of yardage a couple of times. This must be fixed.
• Bradon Kinnie. Oy.
• The defensive backs look mostly lost out there with Alfonzo Dennard out to injury (although I'm a fan of CB Ciante Evans and S Damion Stafford - he did this). Word on the street is that he'll most likely miss the Washington game this week, but should return soon after. I think they'll be fine without him against the Huskies, but the Blackshirts will need him come Wisconsin.

These are the problems that lead me to believe that the Nebraska Cornhuskers are currently overrated. However, I've been teasing you with this "for now" throughout the entire article. And here's why: Bo Pelini. His defenses have consistently made huge leaps WITHIN in the season throughout his tenure at Nebraska. It's actually quite similar to how he approaches each individual game on the defensive side. He feels the other team out the first couple drives (feels his own team out the first couple games), makes the necessary adjustments, and then Ndominates (it's science).

Now while I expect the defense to improve over the course of the season, I think the offense will remain too one-dimensional with an overdependence on T-Mart running the ball. I'm not sold on offensive coordinator Tim Beck enough to feel confident going up against a good defense this season. Thus, I will stick with my previously unannounced prediction of a 10-2 regular season for this team, with a loss in the Big Ten Championship to the Wisconsin Badgers (we don't need no stinking badgers!). Oh, and the Huskers take out some frustrations on the Huskies this week. Big time.

Nebraska 38, Washington 13

Other games you should care about:

Florida St over Oklahoma - I think the smart bet is on the Sooners, but I gots a feeling! I've also got a theory, the Sooners don't have experience in huge road games because they always play their biggest opponent, Texas, at a neutral site. This leads to their annual disappointing loss on the road. I got Steele Jantz in my pants thinking about this one.

West Virginia over Maryland - Two underrated quarterbacks makes this the Steele Jantz Game of the Week. (Yea I went there twice, did you see that kid last week???)

Ohio St. over Miami - Big. Bounce back effort.

Georgia Tech over Kansas - Closer than the experts think. Turner Gill baby.

Upset Special: Illinois over Arizona St. - Beware of the team going on the road, coming off a huge win at home.

Upset Spectacular - Northern Illinois over Wisconsin - Not picking it, but don't say I didn't warn you.

His Dirkliness

10 Thoughts on the Kansas City CHIEFS

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My official Kansas City Chiefs preview comes to you in the form of a grab bag consisting of my 10 biggest thoughts, worries, qualms, predictions, hunches, juxtapositions, and if you're lucky, maybe some conjectures. But first, go ahead and play this song throughout the reading of this piece. If it ends, just restart it. Trust me.



1. This Buffalo Bills opening game scares the dickens out of me. In case you haven't read what I've been saying about the Bills this offseason (here and here), I think they are very dangerous. The Chiefs are still reeling from their shaky preseason, and the Bills might be extra motivated after last season's last second loss (not to mention, Chan Gailey probably hates Todd Haley). However, if the Chiefs were to drop their home opener, I don't like their chances to win at Detroit the next week. At all. And then you're  staring down an 0-2 record with a trip to San Diego looming. Those are season over circumstances there. So the moral of this horror story is - Don't lose to Buffalo!

2. People saying this is a make or break year for Todd Haley are dead wrong. I'm looking at you Randy Covitz! And you Sports Guy (who had this to say in his NFL preview: "Relatively Bold Prediction No. 5: By April 2012, Todd Haley will be the offensive coordinator for the New York Jets"). Look you may not like how Haley approached this preseason (nor do you probably like anything that is unconventional), but he has earned himself a down season after last year. If the Chiefs underperform this season, then he can plop down on the hot seat for the 2012 season, but unless the bottom falls out this season, and the Chiefs go something like 3-13, Todd Haley's job will be safe.

3. I'm worried about Jamaal Charles. And nobody else seems to be, which worries me even more. Look, I've said it before, and I'll say it again (just watch), Running Backs come and go all the time in the NFL. And it happens just like that. One minute you are Chris Johnson (and he'll suck in 2 years) and the next you're Edgerrin James. Or Shaun Alexander. Or Steve Slaton (perhaps the scariest comparison - nearly 1,300 yards as a rookie and barely over 500 yards in the two years since). The easiest way to metamorphose from good to bad is by getting injured. Or getting paid. One of which happened, and one of which I see in my nightmares. Luckily, we have, who I believe to be, the best long term mind in the NFL in Scott Pioli, who seems to be taking the necessary measures to keep Charles healthy for a long God Jam time.

4. Dwayne Bowe takes "The Leap." Last year he took a step and became D-Pro Bowe. I think he takes that next step this season. I'm not sure his stats will necessarily reflect the leap, but consistency is a big part of taking that next step. I expect Bowe to be considered a Top 5 NFL Wide Receiver by the end of the 2011 season. He's in a contract year, which may have played a big part in his offseason conditioning (something the Chiefs will have to take into evaluation following this season when he becomes a free agent). He has looked simply unstoppable this preseason, catching everything thrown his way, and I expect that to continue into the regular season.

5. Charlie Weis was the biggest loss of the offseason. Literally and schematically (oh wait, Shaun Smith is bigger, I think...). Since Chaz Weis announced he was leaving for oranger pastures, Matt Cassel and the passing offense haven't played well against an NFL starting defense. It's possible that the Chiefs got the services of a top flight Offensive Coordinator for only 15 games. And it's also possible that Todd Haley is to blame for that (speculative personality beef). In comes Jim Zorn (who I believe in) and Bill Muir (very skeptical), who takes over as the play caller for the Chiefs. They'll become the immediate scape goats, if my fears of Weis being more important than we're all hoping he was come true.

6. The defense is dependent on the long term health of Kelly Gregg. He appears to be fully healthy right now. But he will turn 35 this season. And his snaps were cut down considerably last season in Baltimore. If Gregg goes down, the Chiefs are forced to turn to 6th rounder Jerrell Powe as a starting Nose Tackle. POWE (right in the kisser) has looked good against 2nd and 3rd teamers in the preseason, but asking him to handle the load as a rookie is a bit of a stretch. And with the Chiefs run defense struggling enough as is, I hate to imagine what it would be like without The Oggre. That is why we all need to pray to 8 pound, 6 ounce baby Jesus that Gregg is lucky enough to last 16 games this season.

7. The defense needs a definitive leader to step up. It could be Eric Berry, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson, or Tamba Hali (my order of likelihood), but I want an individual player for the team to rally around. I want a player that everybody can look to when things are going bad, and they'll get a sense of reassurance. The Ravens have Ray Lewis. The Steelers have Troy Polamalu. The Packers have Charles Woodson. The Patriots had Tedy Bruschi. One look in any of their eyes, and you knew his teammates were completely prepared to respond to adversity. My guess is that Urrrrrr Burrrrrrr (ahem, Eric Berry) steps into that role as this season progresses.

8. I'm atleast mildly intrigued by the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. I'm not gonna root for the Chiefs to lose all of their games. Atleast, not yet. But if the Chiefs fall out of the playoff hunt early on in the season (read: worst case scenario up at #1), I would atleast entertain the idea of tanking the rest of the season in order to win the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes. I think the Chiefs are set up with young talent across the board right now, but Matt Cassel will never be more than an above average Quarterback, and if you watched the Green Bay - New Orleans season opener, you saw first hand what an elite QB can bring to the table. If the Chiefs were able to acquire an elite level QB (and I think there's a very high chance Luck becomes one), then they would become a league powerhouse for the next 10 seasons (and now I have to quit typing before I convince myself this is a good idea from the get go).

9. The Chiefs will only make the playoffs if Jared Gaither is successfully inserted into the starting offensive line. When predicting a team's fate, especially your own team, I look to the most clear cut reasoning possible. Right now the Chiefs offensive line is piss poor. And Matt Cassel doesn't handle getting pressured very well. That's the absolute easiest observation to make about this team. Barry Richardson not only seems to have regressed this offseason/preseason, he seems to have regressed hard. The only chance at improvement I see right now is Jared Gaither, who must play, and play well for the Chiefs to repeat last year's success.

10. The Kansas City Chiefs will go 9-7. Click here to see how.

His Dirkness

Predicting the Kansas City Chiefs 2011 Season

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Game-by-game predictions of the Kansas City Chiefs 2011 season....

Week 1~vs Buffalo W 24-17

Week 2~@ Detroit L 31-17

Week 3~@ San Diego L 34-13


Week 4~vs Minnesota W 21-17


Week 5~@ Indianapolis W 19-13


BYE WEEK


Week 7~@Oakland W 21-13

Week 8~vs San Diego L 27-20

Week 9~vs Miami W 28-10

Week 10~vs Denver W 35-31

Week 11~@ New England L 26-14

Week 12~vs Pittsburgh L 24-21

Week 13~@ Chicago W 13-10

Week 14~@ NY Jets L 14-13

Week 15~vs Green Bay W 31-28

Week 16~vs Oakland W 20-14

Week 17~@ Denver L 30-20

Final Record: 9-7 (3rd in the AFC West)

Finding the NFL's Surprise Team

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Last year, this distinction fell on my beloved Kansas City Chiefs. All of the signs (easy schedule, promising changes, birth of a superstar, and good karma) were there to see before the season, only I was too afraid of putting some sort of hex on them to actually see it (yes, I believe in these kinds of things - times 100).

Every year since 1997 (my brain only goes back that far), at least one NFL team has made a 6 win improvement from the previous season. There were 3 such teams last year in Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. The Chiefs would top that list because they also made the playoffs. So that's what we are looking for here, a team that improves by 6 or more in the win department, AND qualifies for the postseason.

----Who will be the NFL's surprise team in 2011?----

*Mathematically Eliminated (11 wins or more in 2010): New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans

*Logistically Eliminated (would need to go 16-0/15-1): Indianapolis, Kansas City, San Diego, Philadelphia, NY Giants, Green Bay, Tampa Bay

*Dirknosstically Eliminated (honky, please): Jacksonville (needs 14 wins), Oakland (14), Miami (13), St. Louis (13), Washington (12), Seattle (12), San Francisco (12), Tennessee (12), Arizona (11), Cincinnati (10), Carolina (8)

This leaves us with a nice, crisp, clean 7 teams left to fight it out for the honors. Lets shift this into rundown mode...

NEED 12 WINS

~Dallas Cowboys - Do they really count? While they wouldn't be a team I would consider a huge surprise, they certainly do qualify. After riddinig themselves of Wade Phillips at the midpoint of 2010, the Cowboys went 5-3 under Jason Garrett. They get Tony Romo and Dez Bryant back from injuries that cut their seasons short, and they aren't faced with 60 yard big screen expectations this season.
*Schedule - The NFC East is mediocre and they draw the NFC West, the worst divison of all time
*Change - New head coach, QB returning from injury
*Superstar - Bryant has serious potential, as does Romo as a rebirth superstar
*Karma - Bad for the organization, good for Romo
*Outlook - They seem to fit the criteria, but this feels like a 10 or 11 win team to me. Plus, picking the Cowboys as my surprise team would be pretty limpwristed.

~Detroit Lions - America's team. Or atleast America's adopted team of 2011. Or maybe just the team that had the best preseason, putting 10 win expectations on a team coming off a 6 win season. Never a good recipe, although I must admit, I do like me some Lions.
*Schedule - Draw the AFC West (good) and the NFC South (not so good) and play in a division with no gimme's (double not so good)
*Change - 2nd year head coach, QB returning from injury, dynamic rookie in Nick Fairley
*Superstar - Ndominant Suh may already be there, while Stafford has a chance to get there
*Karma - Have the Lions ever been good? I'd say they're due...
*Outlook - Was all about them until the preseason hyphoon was upgraded to a Suhnami. I like the Lions, and I think there's a good chance they reach 10 wins, but they've become a bit too trendy for me.

~Houston Texans - Another team that's hard to qualify as a "surprise" team, but I was surprised to learn they only went 6-10 last season. The Texans have become something of a punchline because of their lofty expecations that annually go unfulfilled. BUT THIS IS THEIR YEAR!
*Schedule - The frontrunners of what is now the second worst division in the NFL (because of Peyton and Garrard), but have tough draws in AFC North and NFC South
*Change - Wade Phillips as new Defensive Coordinator could make a world of difference
*Superstar - Andre Johnson is, Mario Williams should be, Matt Schaub could be, JJ Watt will be
*Karma - I'd like to say it's higher, but the heckling on the way out of the Chiefs game last year might doom them yet
*Outlook - A little too passe for my tastes. The Texans get a huge break with Peyton the Manning's injury vaulting them to the top of their division, but I think they fall short of 12.

~Minnesota Vikings - Beware of the player with the most to prove. Donovan F. has been completely written off after one bad season in a terrible situation with the Redskins. They also might have the most dangerous offensive weapon in the NFL - Visanthe Shiancoe's dong.
*Schedule - Same as Lions - rough division, but draw the AFC West
*Change - New head coach (interim from last season) and new QB
*Superstar - Major Donovan rebirth potential
*Karma - Seem to let down alot, but may have sold their soul by going with Favre
*Outlook - The Vikings chances are completely dependent on whether you believe in McNabb or not. They can beat anybody, but not everybody, with AP running the ball. 12 wins is a bit much though. Sell.

NEED 11 WINS

~Cleveland Browns - Nicholas Wright's team is gaining some steam as a potential sleeper for this season. Colt McCoy has looked rather spry this preseason, coming off a decent finish to his rookie year. He looks like he might be the real deal. The Browns definitely fit the mold of what I am looking for.
*Schedule - Couldn't be easier outside the division with the two worst divisions in NFC West and AFC South, but their own division has two powerhouses
*Change - First full year with Colton, new head coach, former head coach as D-Coord (Dicky Jauron)
*Superstar - Peyton Hillis already graced the cover of Madden (curse!), but this is all about McCoy
*Karma - Hard to argue that anybody deserves it more than Cleveland

*Outlook - Their schedule may not be 2010 Chiefs easy, but it's incredibly easy (includes drawing the Colts in Week 2 - Peyton doubtful). But their WR's are questionable, and so is their defense. I can see 10 wins with a backdoor playoff slide in, but that ain't enough to satisfy me.

NEED 10 WINS

~Buffalo Bills - Chan Chan the Man Man and his wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube offense. If he goes mad scientist this year, I'm talking Mike Leach crazy, I think the Bills could possibly revolutionize the game. Don't say I didn't warn you. I feel like Chan has reached the point where he's willing to try anything, a philosophy that originated with Thigbone (now with the Bills!) and the Chiefs.

*Schedule - Tough division with NE and NYJ, but AFC West and NFC East are manageable

*Change - Word on the street is that The Hyphen, QB-WR-PR Brad Smith, is being used every which way by Chan Chan

*Superstar - The Bumpkin, Ryan Fitzgerald might give the NFL some Ivy League flavor

*Karma - NOBODY needs good news more than the poor people in upstate, New Yahk (I can't help but think of this old commercial)

*Outlook - I came THIS close to going with the Biffalo Buffs, but I only see a max of 9 wins on their schedule. Actually, the opener against the Chiefs here at Arrowhead is their barometer. Win that, you get Oakland at home the next week, and could be 2-0 hosting the Patriots in Week 3. The Bills are my adopted team of 2011.

~Denver Broncos - It pains me to include them on this list, but here they are. Sometimes unnecessary turmoil (Tebow saga) can bring a team together, almost as if they're rallying around the media. Elvis Dumervil returns and tag teams with Von Miller, which scares the dickens out of me. And while I said McNabb had the most to prove in the NFL, Orton might be #2.
*Schedule - Their first 3 games (Oak, Cin, @Tenn) are as easy as they come, which is important for the sleeper team - beyond that it is rather pedestrian
*Change - New head coach John Fox knows how to do a lot with a little
*Superstar - The Neard himself, Kyle Orton might jump into the upper echelon of QB's - Also, Von Miller is my selection for Defensive Rookie of the Year
*Karma - The depths of hell (Tebow and hell jokes will never get old)
*Outlook - Oy. Don't make me say it. I fear the Broncos. Orton making the leap. Tebow doing little things every week that gets praised so much that Deuteronomy's ears bleed. Willis McGahee inevitably rejuvenating his career (I know because I can already feel my hatred towards him growing). Two edge rushers that will crush you on 3rd and long. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins doing wily veteran things in the secondary. We have ourselves a winner, and I hate myself. Denver Broncos: 10-6.

Anybody who correctly picks the NFL's surprise team of 2011 in my comments will earn themselves a surprise party at my convenience following the season. All I need is a one word comment for you to be eligible.

his Dirkness

2011 World Series Predictions

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With all of the hype surrounding the start of football season, I almost forgot that baseball is still going on!!!

But this one is for all of you diehards out there that wait around until the last 5 minutes of Sportscenter to catch the highlights of Thomas Jefferson's past time. I figured I had to get this in before your sport officially ended with the kickoff of Week 1 in the NFL on Thursday night. Hey at least your sport will no longer be overshadowed by a sport that's either a. locked out of all activities or b. smack dab in the middle of meaningless football games that most everybody hates.

So here goes the very first baseball article written by His Dirkness himself......

Philadelphia Phillies over Detroit Tigers in 5.

No doubt about it,
His Dirkness

NBA Finals - Game 3 is THE Game

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The Dallas Mavericks are the better team. Despite the arrogance seeping from the majority of the media believing the Heat can lollygag their way to this NBA Championship, and that their Game 2 meltdown was nothing but a blip on the radar, I have yet to waver from my belief. I might be the only one out there, but I'm sticking to it.

However, Game 3 is big enough that it could change my mind.

The Mavs have played so frustratingly bad in these NBA Finals that my usual routine of superficially berating my friends and hitting my dog hasn't even gotten the job done (Milhaus 3000 has a German alter-ego that I turn against when Dirk plays bad). Through 7 1/2 quarters of basketball they had yet to calm down and truly play their brand of Mavsketball. If the epicness of Thursday night's comeback/collapse combined with the return home isn't enough to settle their nerves, then I will concede the fact that it actually is the Heat's defense forcing the Mavs into careless turnovers, brick nasties, and whatever it is that Peja Stojakovic is out there doing on the court. Until then, I will continue to believe it's a bigger case of the Mavs playing timid.

Meanwhile, the Heat are pissed off right now (the Heat is pissed off? The Heats be pissed off?). Every man in that locker room (sorry Bosh) is telling one another just how big a fluke the Mavs comeback was. I don't care what they're telling the media, they know they let off the gas on Thursday night. And they aim to prove that fact in Game 3. In other words...

The Heat are gonna bring it on Sunday night.

Which makes Game 3 an absolute monstrosity of a game. If the Mavs win, the first seed of doubt, since the Playoffs started, begins to creep into the minds of the Miami Heat. They might begin to question each other. They might begin to question themselves. Judging by their season's ups and downs, and because of their style they play, I don't think any team in the NBA is more affected by self-confidence than Mami's Heat. Once stories began, earlier this season, about how they couldn't close out games, they bought into it, and it manifested itself throughout the season. Now in the Playoffs, stories have spread about how they own the 4th quarter, and voila, they've bought into that as well. This is a vulnerable team. They buy into their own hype. The truth is, we have yet to see a team challenge them in the Playoffs. I believe the Heat are frontrunners and that if the momentum of this series does officially swing, they won't be able to recapture it. They are not as mentally tough as the Dallas Mavericks. Not even close. I'm not sure they have it in them to battle their way through a long series. However, if they are able to pull out Game 3, this whole paragraph is a moot point. So again, I state....

Game 3 is huge.

So huge, in fact, that my prediction for this series rests on it. While everybody from Delonte West to Lebron's momma picked the Heat to win, I originally predicted the Mavs to win in 5. If pressed, I'd probably come down off that prediction, but I don't think it's as laughable as you, the reader, do right now. Contrary to what the media says, I believe the Heat are exactly the type of team that could lose 4 straight games.

Believe it or not, this entire write up was conceptualized before ever hearing this stat...

Since the NBA Finals have gone to the 2-3-2 format (1985), the series has stood pat at 1-1 11 times before. The team that has won Game 3 has gone on to win the series. Every. Single. Time. Do I love that stat? Not necessarily. The better team is going to win a majority of the games, as well as the series. However, the fact that there are no exceptions intrigues me. But nothing about that statistic tells me that it's impossible for the Game 3 loser to come back and win the series, almost seeming more like a coincidence. This might actually be a more telling statistic though...

Of the 11 series tied 1-1, the team with home court advantage has come back to win Game 3 on the road 8 of the 11 times. That's the Miami Heat.

However, I believe the Mavs will win Game 3, and I wouldn't be surprised if they did so decisively. I think the seeds of doubt will be planted in the minds of all 8 of the Miami Heat's faithful (Dan LeBatard included). I think the Mavs are riding too high right now, and will come out shooting lights out. I think Dirk plays his best when he is comfortable, which he finally is after 7 1/2 intimidated quarters of basketball. I think this is the Mavs' series. {Warning: This paragraph has been brought to you by an extremely biased Mavericks fan}

Mostly, I just really hope that it's the Heat's arrogance that costs them these NBA Finals.

Something about this series all seems too familiar though. Dominant team through 2 games of the series. Series swinging 4th quarter comeback. Vulnerable team. Shattered confidence. Questioned legacy. All that's missing is the winning team's star going to the free throw line 85 times per game over the next few. Which might happen. I feel like there's a word to describe this. Ah, yes!

Poetic justice.

His dirkness

NBA Finals Preview

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It has slowly dawned on me that I am about to hate everything associated with the Miami Heat. That's what happens with your team's opponent in a series with these implications on the line. It's very easy to hate a team in the NBA. Everybody whines. Everybody flops. If there's a team that you want to hate, you will hate them. And I want to hate the Miami Heat. I've been on the fence with them throughout most of the season because I loved the intrigue they brought to the NBA's regular season. But the regular season is no longer. My hatred has slowly grown throughout the playoffs, with what I perceive as unearned knob-slobbing. But my hatred is nowhere near where it's about to be. I already cannot stand watching these little videos about them on ESPN, hearing them complain about how nobody likes them, sounding like a bunch of school boy bitches. I look forward to my hatred though. Cheering for the Heat was fun for a little while, but I doubt I'll ever be able to go back to rooting for them after this series. I find myself glad that fate intervened and forced my hatred for Miami Heat.

If you haven't kept up with me this week be sure to read my previous write ups before tonight's Game 1:

The Key to the Dallas Mavericks' Success
Top 10 Reasons to be Excited for NBA Finals
Why you should Root for Dirk and the Mavs

On to the series....

Lebron v. Dirk - Let me start by saying that Lebron will have to outplay Dirk for the Heat to win the NBA Championship. Dirk has more help around him and the Mavs could survive an off game from him more easily than the Heat could 'Bron. If the Heat decide to double Dirk, he won't put up big numbers because he'll simply look to pass out of it every time. The Heat will throw a number of bodies at him including Chris Bosh (who plays defense Like a Bosh), Udonis Randy Mosslem (had success in 2006), and yes, even Lebronius. I'm a tiny bit afraid that 'Bron will find success in defending Dirk. He's got the perfect body frame to do so. However, he can't guard him the whole game (he'd wear out), but if he finds success, you might see Lebron on Dirk at the ends of games (oh, what a sight). The Mavs will put Shawn Marion on 'Bron for starters, but they will throw a number of different looks at him. The Mavs play more zone than anybody in the NBA (expect a lot of it), and at the end of the Thunder series actually had Kidd (who leads the NBA Playoffs in steals) guarding Durant, while Marion took Westbrook (never would've guessed that to begin with). The two stars very well could decide this series, but I think it's 'Bron who is the bigger deciding factor for his team (see how I just took all the pressure off Dirk there?).

Mavs' biggest problem - If the Miami Heat go small. If 'Bron finds success covering Dirk on the defensive end, the Heat will have the option to play him at the 4 spot, which creates mega matchup problems for the Mavs (Dirk ain't covering Lebron - side note - have we ever established if the B in Lebron is supposed to be capitalized?). They'd be forced to take Tyson Chandler out of the game, and when that happened against the Thunder, they scored on a number of easy shots. Dirk would be forced to cover Bosh (a mismatch in itself), and the Mavs would be without their defensive intimidator (Dirk cannot protect the rim or rebound well enough). Hopefully, Eric Spoelstra isn't smart enough to see this, or I'm wrong in my prediction, but keep an eye out for the Heat going small in this series.

Heat's biggest problem - JJ Barea. I'm 97% convinced that it's nearly impossible to shut down Barea on his offensive end. The way you take him out of the game is by capitalizing on his defensive short-comings (pun alert). If a guard has any sort of a post game, he will simply abuse The Streakin' Rican. However, the Heat's options at point guard don't pose much of a threat. Neither Mario Chalmers or Mike Bibby have any kind a post game. I'm expecting to see a lot of Barea in this series (also a lot of DeShawn Stevenson, who held DWade to 2 points in 30 minutes in the regular season. Although, I don't think this is a good series for Peja Stojanky Nuts, who cannot keep up with Wade or Bron). I do believe Barea has an outside shot at Finals MVP (rare enough, that I can't even get betting odds on it).

Heat strategery - Run Lola, run. The Heat have a decided advantage in team speed and overall athleticism. If the game turns into an up and down game, that strongly favors the younger Heat, considering they have two of the best transition players to ever play the game (Chalmers and Mike Miller, of course). Although, the Mavs have played a pretty up tempo game so far in these playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if they purposely try and slow the game down.

Mavs strategery - Offensive efficiency. There has been a lot of talk about the defense of the Miami Heat, but they have yet to face an offense as versatile and effective as the Dirks. The Mavs pride themselves on always getting good shots, which begins and ends with Jason Kidd (literally because he's become such a good jump shooter out of nowhere). If they decide to double Dirk, he will look to pass out of it every time, most likely leading to a 3 point bomb from one of their many snipers - and the list is long - Terry, Barea, Kidd, Stojanky, hopefully not DeShawn.

Dwyane Wade - DWizzly looked very pedestrian in the Eastern Conference finals. If he puts up anything like that in these NBA Finals, the Heat will be toast. The Mavs will put up much more on the offensive end than the Bulls, and the Heat will need to counter that with 2 of their 3 studs putting up big numbers every game. If only 1 of them goes off, the Mavs will win. And if D-Wade doesn't put up big numbers, that puts all the pressure on Chris Bosh's shoulders, exactly where the Dirkness wants it.

Rebounding - The most telling stat in Basketball for me. If you control the boards, most of the time you'll control the game. You'd think the Heat would struggle in this category (or atleast I did) without a true center, but they actually rank better than the Mavs in these playoffs. Most likely, it is because they rebound well from the guard positions. The tide turned for the Heat after Game 1 against the Bulls, when they were able to even the rebounding, and thus, dominate the series. The Mavs have actually been out-rebounded so far in these playoffs. I literally just said this, but it bears repeating, whoever controls the boards will control these games.

PreDirktion - Gee, who ya think I'm going with here? I'm gonna believe what I've seen throughout these playoffs though - that nobody has looked better than the Dallas Mavericks. While watching both conference finals seriesi, I constantly remarked to anybody that would listen (thank you, Twitter) that the Mavs looked far superior to both the Heat and the Bulls. Barring a complete and utter dominating performance out of Lebron (which is about 25% possible), I'm taking the Mavs in a breeze. I think Dirk is on an absolute mission, and everybody on his team would literally go to war with him right now (good thing we're not in the 1940's). I believe the Heat are a bit full of themselves after marching through the weaker Eastern Conference, and won't be prepared for what they're about to run into. Unlike 2006, I believe this Mavs team has the necessary killer instinct to drive the stake into the heart. And they will.

Dallas Mavericks over Miami Heat in 5

His Dirkness

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview

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Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

Miami Heat - Am I the only one suffering from a bit of Heat exhaustion lately? I get that the Miami Heat are the biggest story of these NBA Playoffs. What I don't get is why everybody was so skeptical of them before the playoffs started, but are now convinced they are invincible. What exactly have they done to impress everybody so much? They took care of the 76ers (who nobody would mistake as a good team), but not in overly impressive fashion (only dominating one game of the series - Game 2). But the real overreaction came after defeating the Celtics in the first two games in the next round. But why? Both games were at home. They did nothing but hold serve. Then they got slaughtered in Game 3 at Boston. Then Rajon Rondo got hurt. I'm not completely convinced that the Heat were winning that series if Rondo hadn't got hurt. Even without Rondo, the Celtics led throughout most of Games 4 & 5. Now you might say I'm being nitpicky at this point, but I'm not arguing that the Heat aren't playing well. I'm arguing against the popular belief that they are the overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Title right now.

Chicago Bulls - The least impressive team of the NBA Playoffs up until their Game 6 beatdown of the ATLiens. But seriously, The Pacers? The Hawks? The Bulls may just be a grind it out type of team, but they've had to work way too hard to beat these two chumps. But not only have they failed to impress, they're also a pretty boring team to watch because of their reliance on D-Rose getting to the foul line time and time again (and if he ain't gettin calls, they ain't winning). It'll be interesting to note the progress of Carlos Boozer, who was the Bulls choice for a max contract last offseason, and has been sucking it up this postseason. For fun, imagine who else that money could've been spent on, and what the Bulls might look like right now. Yes, they very easily could've won the Lebronathon and would be waltzing towards an NBA Title right now (this is why it's tough to take LeBron's claim seriously that he wanted to win as many championships as possible).

LeBron James - He finally closed out a game, giving most of the NBA world a gi-massive LeBoner. However, look at how he did it. With jumpshots. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: LeBron's downfall will continue to be his jumpshot. He's not good at them, and he can't say no to them. I don't think he'll be able to win an NBA Title until he's fully committed to driving to the basket. I see little reason why he should ever shoot a 3 pointer. He's too unstoppable on the move. In fact, if I were guarding him (always loved bangin' with bigger bodies), I would play off of him ala Rajon Rondo. Let him shoot all the jumpers he wants. However, given that this was one of his first closeouts of the season, and that he has been unsuccessfully driving to the basket on most of his opportunities this season, I have almost zero tangible evidence to back up this claim. That doesn't make me believe it any less.

Bulls sweep Heat - No this isn't a prediction. It was the fact of the matter from the regular season this year (although LeBron was LeLong Duck Dong for 1 of the 3). Normally, this would hold very little significance with me. Howeverrrrrrrrrr, the Miami Heat treated this NBA regular season like no team has since the Jordan days. So maybe there is something there. A matchup, a nuance, a hatred. Something. So is it a factor? More than it normally would be, but definitely not the decider.

PreDirktion: We have yet to see a truly great series in these NBA Playoffs. The Grizzlies over the Spurs was one of the better upsets of all time, but not impactful enough to define these 'offs. The Thunder and Grizz are going to 7 (which might elevate its' status), but hasn't been well played thus far. I think this series is it. The Bulls will win games by dominating the boards and wearing D-Wade out on the defensive end by guarding D-Rose (already phoning my nickname squad). The Heat will win games when both LeBron and Wade go off in the same game or when D-Rose isn't getting to the foul line. I think this one's going the distance. Maybe, even, going for speed?

Heat over Bulls in 7

See ya in the Finals, chumps,

His Dirkness

Kansas City Chiefs' Keys To Victory

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The time is here. The time is now. I've been so locked into this game that I dreamt about the game last night (only we were playing the Eagles. And the game started at the wrong time. But Jam Charles got stripped and the Eagles went up 7-0 early. It was more of a make-it-take-it game because they got the ball right back, and the Chiefs stuffed them on a 4th and 1. And then I woke up....).

This will be my first Chiefs playoff game since I was just a lil' tyke and attended the 1991 playoff clash between the Chiefs and dehhhh Raiidddaaassss. Chiefs won 13-7. For anyone who is interested, I will be out at Arrowhead tailgating from the get-go (7:30 AM). I will be wearing the O.G.'s jersey (Priest Holmes), sitting in the O.G.'s row (31 - don't think that's an accident), drinking the O.G.'s drank (Red Dog). It's questionable if Ray Lewis will be able to hear my taunts or not, but I will be letting them fly anyways (what happens when a fan within shouting range calls him a murderer repeatedly? Does he react? Are they off'd?).

Enough about me.....on to the game: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens, Sunday @ Noon.

How do the Chiefs win this game? Well.......

Take the Reins Off of Jamaal Charles- The first, and most obvious, key to the game. God Jam Charles needs to become a 5'11, 199 pound workhorse. Thomas Jones has toted the rock 15 times more than G.J. Charles this season, but Tommy Gunz has been rather ineffective these last 3 games and has probably worn down a bit, but that's ok. He's done exactly what we needed him to do. That being said, he shouldn't carry the ball more than 5 times tomorrow. NBA Jam Charles has heated up with 20 carries a total of 7 times in his career, and has gone on fire, with 25 carries, twice. Yardage totals when he carries the ball 20-24 times: 143, 102, 177, 173, and 116. Yardage totals for 25+ carries: 154 and 259. If Charles heats up (20+ carries), there's a good chance the Chiefs will win, and if he goes on fire (25+ carries), I guarantee the Chiefs will win.

Match Their Physicality- The Ravens excel in most of the areas that caused the Chiefs problems in last week's beatdown handed to them by the Raiders. The Ravens surpass the physicality of the Raiders and share the same devotion to the running game (although aren't as effective). The Ravens, surprisingly, can not match the Raiders ability to rush the passer though. There is one big difference between last week and this week though. Last week didn't matter, while this week matters more than any other game. And yes, I believe that can make all the difference in the world. Physicality is all about attitude. Young players, which the Chiefs' roster is filled with, are susceptible to a letdown when the stakes are lowered. With tomorrow's high stakes, emotions should be at an all time high. If the Chiefs can match the intensity of the most physical team in the league, they will win.

Dwayne Bowe Factor- I've already explained this once before at the beginning of the week. But, I'm gonna dive into it again, because I really believe it's the key to the game for the Chiefs offense. And this time I'm gonna get Ron Jaworski excited for it. D-Bowe can exploit the coverage of the Ravens' cornerbacks. The Ravens should have to throw extra help devoted exclusively to Bowe. This will lead to either 1-on-1 coverage on the opposite side (Chambers/Tucker/Moeaki), or one less defender thrown at the running game. I believe Charlie Weis's game plan will be completely based around what the Ravens do with that extra defender. There is a good chance that this defender will be Ed Reed, who might be able to handle all those responsibilities, which leads to the....

~~Key Matchup of the Game~~ Matt Cassel vs. Ed Reed- Reed is the best freelancing Safety in the NFL. He floats all over the field in anticipation of what the QB might do. This makes him very vulnerable to big plays if he guesses wrong, often caused by a QB's deceptive eye (which isn't Cassel's biggest strength). Reed leads the NFL in interceptions after playing in only 10 games this year (including an amazing 4 INT's in the last 6 quarters), while Cassel has avoided the big mistakes for most of the year (Raiders game aside). I believe whoever wins the big play battle between Cassel and Reed will win this game.

Whoever Scores First- With two ball control offenses squaring off, the first score of the game is hugemongous. Whoever gets that first score is able to play their type of game. Neither team is comfortable in playing from behind. If Baltimore gets ahead, they will drain the clock with an all day case of the runs (Hooters' hot wings), while Stringer Reed and Ray-von Barksdale will set out for blood (insert murder joke here). If the Chiefs get ahead, it'll be a steady dose of JamaAL Charles all day, setting up the Cassel-to-Bowe playaction. I won't say whoever scores first will win, but their odds will increase dramatically.

The Arrowhead Crowd- The one component of the game that you, the fan, can have a major effect on. This is our time. We carried the Chiefs to an opening game victory on Monday Night Football in what many of the national pundits called the loudest NFL game they had ever heard. I think we can be louder.  If you attend the game and have a voice left on Sunday night, then you didn't do all you could do. If you see somebody in your section who isn't yelling, it is your responsibility to get them to yell. We must all do our part in making sure the Chiefs break their 17-year curse. Remember, this is do or die, so leave it all on the field tomorrow.

With nothing else to say, as your Chiefs advisor, I strongly encourage you to watch these two videos before embarking out to Arrowhead Stadium tomorrow....

No one! And I mean.......NO ONE....comes in to our house.....and pushes us around!



Or do you prefer this speech? 1 inch at a time....



Chiefs 20, Ravens 10
Tomorrow is our day!
Oh yea.....now this is happening....The Chiefs official theme song!!!!



Lets party Kansas City!!!!!

Go CHIIIIIEEEFFFSSSSSSSSS,

His DirtyDirkChiefNastiness