A Historical Look at KU and One-and-Done Players

The ball is tipped. And here we are.

The calendar has flipped from the consequence-free National holiday of Leap Day over to March 1st, marking the unofficially official start to the College Basketball season.

To celebrate, I wanted to do a historical study consisting of the few debatable topics surrounding Bill Self's tenure at the University of Kansas: NCAA Tournament success and one-and-done players.

The premise of this statistical look is simple: Was there a one-and-done player on the roster vs. how did KU fare in the NCAA Tournament? For shits and giggles, as well as a bit of a control group, I threw in another factor pundits often point to when it comes to success in The Big Dance -- senior leadership.

Lets start with Bill Self's first year at KU, the 2003-04 season, which will be referred to as 2004 in this article, for clarity's sake. I've also simplified the following chart to read "Senior" for what I'd consider sufficient senior leadership, and "Freshman" for the presence of a one-and-done player on the roster. If neither are present, I simply put "None." The final number in the chart is how many games KU won in the NCAA Tournament that season.

• 2004 - None - 3
• 2005 - Senior - 0
• 2006 - None - 0
• 2007 - None - 3
• 2008 - Senior - 6
• 2009 - None - 2
• 2010 - Senior - Freshman - 1
• 2011 - Senior - Freshman - 3
• 2012 - Senior - 5
• 2013 - Senior - Freshman - 2
• 2014 - Freshman - 1
• 2015 - Freshman - 1

Another look:

• NCAA Tournament wins under Bill Self: 27 = 2.25 average wins
• NCAAT wins with a One-and-done player: 1, 3, 2, 1, 1 = 1.6 average wins
• NCAAT wins without a One-and-done: 3, 0, 0, 3, 6, 2, 5 = 2.71 average wins
• NCAAT wins with Senior leadership: 0, 6, 1, 3, 5, 2 = 2.83 average wins
• NCAAT wins without Senior leadership: 3, 0, 3, 2, 1, 1 = 1.67 average wins

Notes:

• I declared no senior leadership for a few teams that people might disagree with: 2004 (Jeff Graves), 2006 (Jeff Hawkins + Christian Moody) and 2014 (Tarik Black). I didn't consider any of these players among the top on the team. Also it helped balance out the study.
• I gave Ben McLemore the one-and-done label for 2013, even though he was technically a second year player, having redshirted the season before.

Statistical Analysis:

Self's most accomplished teams have come equipped with senior leadership and no one-and-done players, reaching the National Championship Game twice out of four such instances, while losing in the Elite 8 and first round in 2004 and 2005, respectively.

Over the last six years, the only time KU's season didn't end in (what I would consider) disappointment was 2012, the one year without a one-and-done. Furthermore, every Bill Self team with a one-and-done player at KU has bowed out to a lower seeded team in the NCAA Tournament.

In fact, throughout his time at KU, Self has only lost to a higher seeded team three times - Georgia Tech in 2004, Michigan St. in 2009 and Kentucky in the 2012 National Championship Game. This serves as both a testament to KU's shortcomings in the NCAA Tournament, as well as how good KU has been in the regular season, earning top seeds year after year (KU's seedings under Self: 4, 3, 4, 1, 1, 3, 1, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2).

Arguments:

I think it's obvious to say every coach would love to have senior leadership up and down their squad, but that's not really a task that is easily controllable, so case closed on that one.

But what about the recruitment of potential one-and-dones? You may look at this data and already be convinced it's for the worse. Or you may dismiss this data due to sample size and happenstance.

However, at what point do these results become an undeniable trend? Or will it never reach that point, given that a championship team with a one-and-done and no senior leadership would more than likely balance the scales?

For transparency's sake, I've never been in favor of having one-and-done type players, a personaly philosophy dating back to before the beginning of this case study. I had an irrefutable argument up until Carmelo Anthony (or maybe, Gerry McNamara, to be more accurate), a pretty strong case before Anthony Davis, and finally, something resembling a case until Jahlil Okafor last year.

My stance has since lessened slightly, but I still argue those are generational type players, and for whatever reason, they haven't panned out at KU, even including a #1 draft pick like Andrew Wiggins.

But why would that be?

My arguments, outside of the first 1,500 words of this article: 1. It's easier to sustain greatness and build team chemistry with three and four year players. And 2. I don't trust the motives of one-and-done players, who I believe are generally more focused on their draft stock than winning games in March (don't hate the player for this, hate the game).

The initial counter-argument is clear and simple: You never turn down talent. You want the best basketball players you can find and you figure out the rest later. Additionally, the players reaching the NBA are reaping dividends for the program throughout their careers.

Conclusion:

The goal of this article wasn't to sway you one way or the other, but rather to supply the data and the arguments for both sides of what I consider a great debate that is getting more and more interesting over the years.

I wouldn't consider this highly scientific study to be anything conclusive. We're still talking about a small sample size, given the single elimination nature of the NCAA Tournament.

Obviously, the much better barometer of Self's career at KU would be the 11 straight conference titles, one of the more impressive achievements in the history of sports. However, nobody debates the greatness of Self or KU as a regular season titan. The questions begin to surface when it comes to late March.

So the only question that remains now is how the 2016 Kansas Jayhawks, armed with senior leadership and a potential one-and-done player, will affect this debate?

His Dirkness

KU: It's Time To Get Serious

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Those who have been following my KU analyses throughout the year know that I'm all about the ridiculousness - from Withey's golden slumbers, to a slew of perfected nicknames (Mar-Mo, Marqueef, Thryrell, Morningstarch, Ratatat Ty Tay, Selby Don't, T-Robb The Backboard Slobb, The Mid Ranger Banger, ChenoWithey, BobbleHeadeford, and The Book of Eli-Jah Rule), to the angel who descended from heaven and graced us with the Yaya's of the Century (YOTC - pronounced Yahtzee) inside the Fieldhouse - but that's what the College Basketball regular season is all about.

Now, it's time to get serious.

Duke wasn't the best team last season by any means. What they did better than any other team in the country was know their roles. A wise man once said, "Knowing your weaknesses can be your greatest strength." So when Zoubek was grabbing offensive rebounds, he wasn't looking for his own shot, but was looking for one of his plethora of shooters around the 3-point arc. Simply, they never played outside of themselves. Duke used this strategy all the way to a National Championship.

Fast forward to this season with KU. How well do the players from top to bottom know their role right now? In a word, not. Which makes this Big 12 Tournament extremely important for the Jayhawks. It's more important that they make it to the Championship Game than it is that they win it. They need the experience because the team's dynamic has changed since the Tyshawn suspension and the Selby implosion. Players are now being casted in new roles, and the biggest question I have moving forward is...

Is there enough time?

The change in the team's infrastructure centers around 3 players. Tyshawn Taylor was the starting Point Guard for the majority of the season up until his suspension for posting a double-double on Marisha Brown at mid-court of the Fieldhouse. Josh Selby had been starting until his man-pon fell out and landed on his foot, sidelining him for 3 games. His spot has been long lost to M-Star by now. Elijah Johnson has filled in gracefully as the starting Point Guard, and has kept the job even since Ty-Tay's return. So how will Bill But-Butta Self juggle this threesome heading into the most important games of the season?

Josh Selby - Ranting time. For the record, I've been against the recruitment of Josh Selby from day one. I feel like I'm the only one that gets it when it comes to 1-and-dones, but I'll explain once again. They may benefit a program like Baylor or Kansas St, but Kansas has no business recruiting these types of players. Not only do they not breed National Championships (the most repeated line in His Dirknesstory), with Carmelo Anthony as the lone exception (and that was 8 years ago!), but they leave your program in worse shape for the next season. If Xavier Henry (who some people still try to argue was successful at KU - SPOILER - he wasn't) and Selby hadn't enrolled at KU, then a player like Travis Releford would have two years of game experience by now and would be ready to contribute not only this season, but for the next two as well.

The most mind-boggling part of it all is that Self hasn't seemed to figure this out, even though it's not how he won his National Championship at KU. But will this experience with Selby change his recruiting strategy? They can't be getting along. And, now, Selby finds himself in a pickle. He can either cut his losses and go to the NBA with a depleted draft stock, or try and repair his relationship with Self and come back and improve his game with one more year of college experience. You have to wander what NBA scouts are thinking about Selby not playing a single minute in the 2nd half on Saturday. Whatever happens, I'm sure nobody hates the rule forcing players to wait a year to enter the NBA Draft more than Josh Selby.

That's enough ranting. Sorry, it's just difficult to listen to people discuss the situation and get it so wrong. Lets address Selby's current situation with KU. I was so sickened by his performance against Missouri on Saturday that I scribbled down in my notes, "I don't even want to look at Josh Selby's face anymore." Well, my guess is that he finds himself 9th in the rotation now, which might not crack more than 10 minutes a game (if he ever takes his warmups off). I would let him see the floor, but wouldn't let his time extend beyond two missed shots, to see if he decided to mentally show up for that game. However, my nightmare of him costing us a game in the NCAA Tournament may no longer be realistic, because I don't think he'll see enough meaningful minutes.

Tyshawn Taylor/Elijah Johnson - I figured Tyshawn would've regained his position in the starting lineup after his suspension, but Self's decision to go with Elijah in the Missouri game may have been telling as to where they stand in his mind. We may be seeing a Point Guard-by-committee situation developing. I really don't know who to expect in the game come crunch time with the season on the line. That's something you need to know this time of year. And maybe Self does. That's what he must get ironed out though, and the Big 12 Tournament is the last opportunity to tinker with his many pieces. I'm in favor of starting Elijah from here on out, and using Ty Tay as more of an off guard, coming off the bench, specializing in transition and getting to the rim. EJ provides something that has been lacking from this team throughout most of the season, which is great on-the-ball defense. I'm talkin Russ-Rob style defense. It's very refreshing, and may give KU the defensive spark they've needed all season.

It's up to Self to get this figured out in time for the NCAA Tournament. I just hope there's enough time. The wrong decision and KU could be headed for another early round upset. However, if Self can find the right combination to these three guards, he might just crack the safe's code, and potentially unlock another National Championship.

For my Big 12 Awards including 1st team, 2nd team, Player of the Year, Coach of the Year, Freshman, Most Overrated/Underrated: Click here.

For my Big 12 Tournament predictions: Click here.

His Dirkness

Josh Selby: The Exception or The Rule?

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Can Josh Selby singlehandedly lead H'dirkness to change his beliefs on the one-and-done player?

Mmmm not so fast my friends! Atleast, not yet. I've been very public about my distaste for one-and-done players coming to KU. I don't believe it's the best way to build the foundation of a program (hard to replace players every year), nor do I believe it's the best way to win National Championships, which is what it's all about. I base most of my beliefs around what it takes to win it all around the 2008 Kansas team, the most successful team I've ever followed from day 1. That team wasn't the only team void of a one-and-done type player, but rather every College Basketball team that has won a championship in the past 20 years, with one very large exception, the 2003 Syracuse team led by Carmelo Anthony (next closest contributor may have been Marvin Williams to the 2005 North Carolina team, who didn't even start).

I believe that it takes a certain desire, a willingness to lay it all on the line, to win in March. One-and-dones treat the NCAA Tournament like it's a showcase for them to get noticed by NBA scouts. Xavier Henry was the perfect example of this last year. As the ship was going down, and it was time to see what the Jayhawks were made of deep down, I think I spotted Henrization X in the stands getting a hot dog. "Oh, sorry guys, did you need me?"

Now maybe my distaste for Xavier is too fresh on my mind for me to see the big picture. After all, The Selbinator will probably have a shot at going #1 in the NBA Draft, so he might actually care about what happens to the team (hard to go #1 if you get bounced early). But, with my full disclosure of predetermined beliefs now out in the open, let me get to what happened on Saturday against USC.

Selby's huge 3-pointer that he hit with just under 30 seconds left in the game, putting KU up by 1, may have created a stigma for himself. And it may be just what these Jayhawks needed. Already stacked with a National Championship caliber frontcourt (no, frequent commenter Rickaaay, that does not include ChenoWithey), Selby may provide the final piece to the puzzle. Tyshawn Taylor, Eli'Jah Rule Johnson, Travis Bobbleheadeford, and the Whitey Tighties are all nice complimentary pieces, but none of them really inspire confidence in taking a big shot (I'd actually trust Tyrel the most).

That 2008 Kansas team's calling card was balance. A team that could attack you with any player on the floor, from any spot on the floor. This 2011 team is very similar in that aspect. However, with the '08 team, everybody knew who would take the big shot (except the Calipari Monster I guess). Who is that man on this team? Mar-Mo would probably be the answer as of now, but you'd prefer a guard that could create his own shot. Selby might have to be that guy. Fortunately, he looks like he's up for the challenge. He did not hesitate to shoot it in his very first game in a KU uniform. This is a very good thing. He is young enough to believe what people are saying about him, and people had to be slob-knobbing him after his performance on Saturday.

However, Selby was far from perfect. He was a bit of a chucker, but that might not be the worst thing for these Jayhawks, who have yet to develop a true identity. He also showed some rust with a couple of Ty-Tay-like turnovers that had you scratching your head. Hopefully, those kinks get worked out with a few more games under his belt though (just like Tyshawn right?).

So, while I was hesitant to embrace the arrival of Josh Selby, I can't deny that the Kansas Jayhawks just became a whole lot more interesting. While merely trudging along through the winter sludgery (their beginning to the season has been rather boring), they were being forgotten by Ze Dirkness due to the playoff push by the Chiefs (GO CHIIIIIIIIIIIEFFSSSSS!). And while the Chiefs are dominating 95% of my brain right now, the Jayhawks are now atleast on the radar, which is good news for all my KU Crodies out there.

(P.S. The lack of Chiefs writing can be attested to my approach to these last three games as more of a fan than a writer. Writing about the Chiefs is fun, but my passion doesn't run as high with an eye on the big picture at all times. I want both eyes on the here and now, with all perspective thrown out the window. That being said, I'll try and pump out some thoughts before next week's game against the Titans, which I will say, scares the dickens outta me.)

h'Dirk-ness