Finding the NFL's Surprise Team

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Last year, this distinction fell on my beloved Kansas City Chiefs. All of the signs (easy schedule, promising changes, birth of a superstar, and good karma) were there to see before the season, only I was too afraid of putting some sort of hex on them to actually see it (yes, I believe in these kinds of things - times 100).

Every year since 1997 (my brain only goes back that far), at least one NFL team has made a 6 win improvement from the previous season. There were 3 such teams last year in Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. The Chiefs would top that list because they also made the playoffs. So that's what we are looking for here, a team that improves by 6 or more in the win department, AND qualifies for the postseason.

----Who will be the NFL's surprise team in 2011?----

*Mathematically Eliminated (11 wins or more in 2010): New England, NY Jets, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans

*Logistically Eliminated (would need to go 16-0/15-1): Indianapolis, Kansas City, San Diego, Philadelphia, NY Giants, Green Bay, Tampa Bay

*Dirknosstically Eliminated (honky, please): Jacksonville (needs 14 wins), Oakland (14), Miami (13), St. Louis (13), Washington (12), Seattle (12), San Francisco (12), Tennessee (12), Arizona (11), Cincinnati (10), Carolina (8)

This leaves us with a nice, crisp, clean 7 teams left to fight it out for the honors. Lets shift this into rundown mode...

NEED 12 WINS

~Dallas Cowboys - Do they really count? While they wouldn't be a team I would consider a huge surprise, they certainly do qualify. After riddinig themselves of Wade Phillips at the midpoint of 2010, the Cowboys went 5-3 under Jason Garrett. They get Tony Romo and Dez Bryant back from injuries that cut their seasons short, and they aren't faced with 60 yard big screen expectations this season.
*Schedule - The NFC East is mediocre and they draw the NFC West, the worst divison of all time
*Change - New head coach, QB returning from injury
*Superstar - Bryant has serious potential, as does Romo as a rebirth superstar
*Karma - Bad for the organization, good for Romo
*Outlook - They seem to fit the criteria, but this feels like a 10 or 11 win team to me. Plus, picking the Cowboys as my surprise team would be pretty limpwristed.

~Detroit Lions - America's team. Or atleast America's adopted team of 2011. Or maybe just the team that had the best preseason, putting 10 win expectations on a team coming off a 6 win season. Never a good recipe, although I must admit, I do like me some Lions.
*Schedule - Draw the AFC West (good) and the NFC South (not so good) and play in a division with no gimme's (double not so good)
*Change - 2nd year head coach, QB returning from injury, dynamic rookie in Nick Fairley
*Superstar - Ndominant Suh may already be there, while Stafford has a chance to get there
*Karma - Have the Lions ever been good? I'd say they're due...
*Outlook - Was all about them until the preseason hyphoon was upgraded to a Suhnami. I like the Lions, and I think there's a good chance they reach 10 wins, but they've become a bit too trendy for me.

~Houston Texans - Another team that's hard to qualify as a "surprise" team, but I was surprised to learn they only went 6-10 last season. The Texans have become something of a punchline because of their lofty expecations that annually go unfulfilled. BUT THIS IS THEIR YEAR!
*Schedule - The frontrunners of what is now the second worst division in the NFL (because of Peyton and Garrard), but have tough draws in AFC North and NFC South
*Change - Wade Phillips as new Defensive Coordinator could make a world of difference
*Superstar - Andre Johnson is, Mario Williams should be, Matt Schaub could be, JJ Watt will be
*Karma - I'd like to say it's higher, but the heckling on the way out of the Chiefs game last year might doom them yet
*Outlook - A little too passe for my tastes. The Texans get a huge break with Peyton the Manning's injury vaulting them to the top of their division, but I think they fall short of 12.

~Minnesota Vikings - Beware of the player with the most to prove. Donovan F. has been completely written off after one bad season in a terrible situation with the Redskins. They also might have the most dangerous offensive weapon in the NFL - Visanthe Shiancoe's dong.
*Schedule - Same as Lions - rough division, but draw the AFC West
*Change - New head coach (interim from last season) and new QB
*Superstar - Major Donovan rebirth potential
*Karma - Seem to let down alot, but may have sold their soul by going with Favre
*Outlook - The Vikings chances are completely dependent on whether you believe in McNabb or not. They can beat anybody, but not everybody, with AP running the ball. 12 wins is a bit much though. Sell.

NEED 11 WINS

~Cleveland Browns - Nicholas Wright's team is gaining some steam as a potential sleeper for this season. Colt McCoy has looked rather spry this preseason, coming off a decent finish to his rookie year. He looks like he might be the real deal. The Browns definitely fit the mold of what I am looking for.
*Schedule - Couldn't be easier outside the division with the two worst divisions in NFC West and AFC South, but their own division has two powerhouses
*Change - First full year with Colton, new head coach, former head coach as D-Coord (Dicky Jauron)
*Superstar - Peyton Hillis already graced the cover of Madden (curse!), but this is all about McCoy
*Karma - Hard to argue that anybody deserves it more than Cleveland

*Outlook - Their schedule may not be 2010 Chiefs easy, but it's incredibly easy (includes drawing the Colts in Week 2 - Peyton doubtful). But their WR's are questionable, and so is their defense. I can see 10 wins with a backdoor playoff slide in, but that ain't enough to satisfy me.

NEED 10 WINS

~Buffalo Bills - Chan Chan the Man Man and his wacky waving inflatable arm flailing tube offense. If he goes mad scientist this year, I'm talking Mike Leach crazy, I think the Bills could possibly revolutionize the game. Don't say I didn't warn you. I feel like Chan has reached the point where he's willing to try anything, a philosophy that originated with Thigbone (now with the Bills!) and the Chiefs.

*Schedule - Tough division with NE and NYJ, but AFC West and NFC East are manageable

*Change - Word on the street is that The Hyphen, QB-WR-PR Brad Smith, is being used every which way by Chan Chan

*Superstar - The Bumpkin, Ryan Fitzgerald might give the NFL some Ivy League flavor

*Karma - NOBODY needs good news more than the poor people in upstate, New Yahk (I can't help but think of this old commercial)

*Outlook - I came THIS close to going with the Biffalo Buffs, but I only see a max of 9 wins on their schedule. Actually, the opener against the Chiefs here at Arrowhead is their barometer. Win that, you get Oakland at home the next week, and could be 2-0 hosting the Patriots in Week 3. The Bills are my adopted team of 2011.

~Denver Broncos - It pains me to include them on this list, but here they are. Sometimes unnecessary turmoil (Tebow saga) can bring a team together, almost as if they're rallying around the media. Elvis Dumervil returns and tag teams with Von Miller, which scares the dickens out of me. And while I said McNabb had the most to prove in the NFL, Orton might be #2.
*Schedule - Their first 3 games (Oak, Cin, @Tenn) are as easy as they come, which is important for the sleeper team - beyond that it is rather pedestrian
*Change - New head coach John Fox knows how to do a lot with a little
*Superstar - The Neard himself, Kyle Orton might jump into the upper echelon of QB's - Also, Von Miller is my selection for Defensive Rookie of the Year
*Karma - The depths of hell (Tebow and hell jokes will never get old)
*Outlook - Oy. Don't make me say it. I fear the Broncos. Orton making the leap. Tebow doing little things every week that gets praised so much that Deuteronomy's ears bleed. Willis McGahee inevitably rejuvenating his career (I know because I can already feel my hatred towards him growing). Two edge rushers that will crush you on 3rd and long. Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins doing wily veteran things in the secondary. We have ourselves a winner, and I hate myself. Denver Broncos: 10-6.

Anybody who correctly picks the NFL's surprise team of 2011 in my comments will earn themselves a surprise party at my convenience following the season. All I need is a one word comment for you to be eligible.

his Dirkness

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011

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Vegas has recently released their over/unders for number of regular season wins for each NFL team. Some of them seem particularly juicy, well I wouldn't touch some of the others with Visanthe Shiancoe's pole.

But since I so desperately aspire to be a gambling junkie, I'm gonna let all my Crodies in on the 10 sure bets on the lot. There will be actual money put down on these teams from Sir Dirkness. And I expect to be atleast 5 bucks richer by season's end. Without further ado...

Top 10 NFL Over/Unders for 2011:

1. Miami Dolphins +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

First off, Chad Henne is their quarterback (who I, at first, believed in until I heard that he publicly complained about facing competition for his job). So this year, Henne is hearing "We want Orton" chants at training camp, which Henne claimed "hurt his feelings" (not that there's anything wrong with that). Oy. I'm not ripping the guy for being sensitive, but that's not what I want to hear from my team's QB. Outside of that, the Dolphins lost Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, AND Tyler Thigpen and added almost nobody of note (Reggie Bush has been zung).

Potential pitfall: Anchored by Jake Long, the Dolphins' offensive line might have one of the best in the NFL.

Projected record: 5-11


2. New Orleans Saints +/- 10 wins ~ OVER

I absolutely love the Saints this year, who are flying so far underground that no radar can pick them up because of the Eagles and Packers in the NFC. The Saints drafted Mark Ingram to solidify their running game (and Sproles), and beefed up their defensive interior with Aubrayo Franklin and Shaun Rogers. And they were the most active team in organizing offseason activities, an unknown X-factor impacting the 2011 season. This team might go 10-6, but they aren't going 9-7 or worse (barring an injury to Brees).

Potential Pitfall: Their cornerbacks are the only potential position of weakness I can find on this team.

Projected record: 13-3


3. Washington Redskins +/- 6.5 wins ~ UNDER

Rex Grossman. John Beck. Tim Hightower. Ryan Torain. Santana Moss. Jabar Gaffney. These are the key skill position contributors for the team (I could've just stopped after Beck). They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL. And nobody there seems to be responding to Mantanahan just yet.

(Note: This is the most lopsided action of any over/unders for the 32 teams).

Potential Pitfall: They play each of the NFC West teams. So they might win 4 games?

Projected Record: 4-12


4. San Diego Chargers +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

Shitty, I know, but I think the Chargers are pissed off about last season. I don't think they believed anybody could top them in the AFC West, and their play from last season proved so. I think they play this season with something to prove from the get go. Vincent Jackson returns, and the quiet additions of Bob Sanders, Takeo Spikes, and Travis LaBoy could be huge. And this is my best effort at a reverse jinx.

Potential Pitfall: All together now.....NORV TURNER! While he may not be our only hope, he certainly is our best hope, Obi Wan.

Projected Record: 11-5

5. San Francisco 49ers +/- 7.5 wins ~ UNDER

The Alex Smith suckfest continues. I can't imagine how tired 9ers fans are of this guy. It's his 7th year in the league! And he hasn't been good for any of them! And he's not even really in competition for his job right now! And....that's enough. This reeks of a team that inserts a rookie QB by midseason, in this case, Colin Kaepernick (he ain't gonna get it done). Initially, I hesitated due to Jim Harbaught, but then I remembered college coaches never do good in the NFL.

Potential Pitfall: Again, the NFC West conundrum, where it seems like any of the teams could put a few pieces together and win 8 games.

Projected Record: 5-11

6. Indianapolis Colts +/- 9.5 wins ~ OVER

This feels like easy money. Almost like it's too good to be true. I'm almost skeptical because Vegas knows more than everybody else most of the time. However, do you know the last season the Colts finished with under 10 wins? It was 2001. Really the only question is...

Potential Pitfall: Peyton Manning's injury. He has yet to practice this year, and will most likely not play in a single preseason game. I think this slows down their juggernaut offense, but doesn't completely kill it. The pieces are more of the same from last season, which should help. It's hard to imagine the Colts not in the playoffs.

Projected Record: 10-6

7. Minnesota Vikings +/- 6.5 wins ~ OVER

I believe in Donovan F. McNabb (as my QB rankings would lead you to believe). I'll always bet on players that have a lot to prove, in which case, McNasty has more than just about anybody in the league. His receivers aren't great, but they never were in Philly either (but he does have good TE's, ala the Pheagles). Oh, and they have this Adrian Peterson dude. Their D ain't great (because Jared Allen sucks now), but it doesn't have to be to reach 7 wins.

Potential Pitfall: The dreaded bad start/rookie QB combo that might occur with Christian Ponder waiting in the wings (at which point they would have no shot at 7 wins).

Projected Record: 8-8

8. Buffalo Bills +/- 5.5 wins ~ OVER

Call it a love of the bumpkin QB, but I can't get enough of the Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Orton, or Shaun Hill trio (the most underrated QB's in the league). I think Chan Gailey goes mad scientist this year with Brad Smith, CJ Spiller, and Tyler Thigpen at his disposal (all taking snaps at QB). Prediction: You might see a freshly unwrapped, innovative, dazzling offense out of the Bills this season, a system that stems from Gailey's time in KC with the Thigboner. Sorta Vermeil-esque.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Biffalo Buffs, and they haven't smelled success in a while. I'll be damned if they're not better than the Dolphins though.

Projected Record: 9-7

9. Green Bay Packers +/- 11.5 wins ~ UNDER

It's hard to sustain success in the NFL. Everybody will be gunning for the defending champs. Not to mention, they didn't even win 12 games last season. The big question is if the time off from the Lockout will help them or hurt them. In one corner, they didn't have the coaches in their ear, preaching to forget about being champs all offseason. In the other corner...

Potential Pitfall: There has been less time for other teams in the NFL to make significant strides, leading one to believe that the Pack would still be the best team in the league.

Projected Record: 11-5

10. Detroit Lions +/- 7.5 wins ~ OVER

My team for 2011. I like Stafford at QB (and I like Shaun Hill even more at backup QB). I like the backfield combo of Best and Harrison. I like the pickups of Justin Durant and Stephen Tulloch at LB. And I LOVE the combo of Ndominant World Order (NwO) and Piggie Fairley in the middle of that defense (even though Fairley is hurt, he should be back for Week 1). My only hesitation is that 7.5 wins is a pretty high number. I must not be the only one on the bandwagon.

Potential Pitfall: Well, they're the Detroit Lions! There's a definite mental hurdle they'll need to clear, preferably early in the season.

Projected Record: 10-6

Sorry I'm not home right now, I'm walking in the spiderwebs,

His Dirkness