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Friday, December 11, 2015

FanDuel NFL Week 14: Fuck, Marry, Kill

I hope last night a sweet taste in the mouth of all the "bad football" truthers out there.

One of my biggest bugaboos of this NFL season is the onslaught of media members who constantly race to their Twitter accounts to comment on all of the "bad football" being played.

I'm not entirely sure when this supposed golden age of "good football" took place. Or what even constitutes bad football: Parity in the league? Poor coaching? Poor QB play?

It annoys me because while these people groan and complain, I'm over here begging for the NFL season to slow down so I can soak in my 17 favorite days of the calendar year (16 Chiefs games + Festivus).

Or maybe, if last night couldn't sway them, Will Smith can: Hey. You. TELL THE TRUTH.

Regardless, last night's game was spectacular. I enjoyed every minute of it. And I came away pretty impressed with the Vikings for sticking with my Super Bowl favorites every step of the way.

Why do I like the Cardinals as SB favorites? For beginners, all of the attention is on the 12-0 Panthers right now. The Bird Gang is flying under the radar a bit, but will still earn the all important bye.

Carson Palmer appears to be on a mission, coming off of his surgery. Bruce Arians is the best coach in the NFL who hasn't put his hands on a female ref in the past week. They have playmakers scattered all over the defense. They have a young RB with fresh legs for the home stretch. And they're aggressive on both sides of the ball. Now lets FanDuel.
On to the Week 14 FMK's (find an older post for FMK explanations)...

***If you've never tried FanDuel and you're interested, this is a great time to try. I've got great deals from now until the end of the season, get at me on Twitter or Facebook OR simply follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 14 on FanDuel

Quarterback

Fuck - Alex Smith ($6800) - My guy. My quarterback. How bout rushing yards his last 5 weeks: 23-35-33-33-78 with two TD's sprinkled in there. San Diego offered little resistance in the last meeting, with Alex going 20-25 for 253. He just didn't get any scores. That'll change this week.

Marry - Drew Brees ($7900) - A situation worth monitoring with Cooks and Snead banged up - BUT - Breesus hung up 38 on the Panthers last week and then had his price drop. Mark Ingram is out and the Bucs have a stout run defense, so the Saints will definitely be marching through the air. Lots of QB's to choose from this week though. Spread the wealth.

Kill - Johnny Football ($6400) - Don't necessarily hate him as a play but here's a fun prop bet from Bovada: Johnny's status for Week 1 of 2016:
  • Starting QB - Browns: +250
  • Backup QB - Browns: +250
  • Backup QB - other team: +300
  • Starting QB - other team: +500
  • “None of the above” +200
Those odds for none of the above me surprise me a bit. I don't think he falls out of the league just quite yet. It does feel like he's done in Cleveland though. I think they ship him off and draft another QB in the first round. And I think he catches on somewhere. So I'm going with "Backup QB - other team" at +300.

Facebook pokes - Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Jameis Winston, Eli Manning, Tyrod Taylor

Running Back

Fuck - Shaun Draughn ($6500) - Not the homerun I was hoping for last week, but he was still a decent fuck. The rushing output isn't all the way there, but he has 22 catches in his 4 starts. And he gets the Browns, who already have their sights set on that #1 pick. Also, his last name autocorrects to Dragon on my computer. That's gotta be worth something.

Marry - LeSean McCoy ($7900) - Revenge game, baby. Honestly, I think he’s an idiot, which is 84% influenced by my love for Chip Kelly. He got shipped off for legitimate reasons. He went to an undesirable location. He was frustrated. And he took the easy way out by using his race as a crutch to air those frustrations, while tarnishing a man’s name in the process. All one man's opinion, but I say that's some bullshit.

Kill - Devonta Freeman ($8700) - He has 59 rushing yards combined in his last two complete games. He hasn't scored a rushing TD since October 15th. And the Panthers have been shutting RB's down lately.

Facebook pokes - Matt Forte, Thomas Rawls, Deangelo Williams, Lamar Miller, TJ Yeldon, Ronnie Hillman or CJ Anderson (if one is out), Ryan Mathews

Wide Receiver

Fuck - Allen Hurns ($6600) - Was producing right alongside my guy, A-Rob, until injuries kept him in and out of the lineup over the last month. He's supposedly 100% now. The Colts' only good CB, Vontae Davis, should chase A-Rob, alongside everybody on FanDuel who wants to cash in on his 3 TD performance last week. Hurns might be my favorite play in a week with no home runs.

Marry - AJ Green ($8500) - His last four games against the Steelers: 11-118-1, 8-82, 11-224-1, 9-93. It could be a shootout on Sunday. And Pittsburgh is solid against the run, terrible against the pass. Good team to attack.

Kill - DeAndre Hopkins ($8700) - I've held to it all season long: The Belichick Effect. He singles out the opponent's top weapon and gameplans to stop him. That's clearly Hop for the Texans.

Facebook pokes - Odell Beckham Jr, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffrey, Jarvis Landry, TY Hilton, Devante Parker, Brandon Coleman (watch Cooks/Snead)

Tight End

Gronk - Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($5500) - A bit of a risk but TE is tough this week. ASJ only played 21 snaps last week but saw 6 targets. This week he gets the gold mine of the Saints defense. High risk, potentially high reward.

Marry - Greg Olsen ($6600) - Plug and play. Every week. His salary never rises and he's been way more consistent than Gronk this year.

Kill - Delanie Walker ($6100) - He's been eating lately. And he was great on Highly Questionable this week. But the Jets have the 2nd best defense against TE's. 

Facebook pokes - Tyler Eifert, Travis Kelce, Will Tye

Kicker

Fuck - Cairo Santos ($4700) - Team MVP at $4700 alert.

Marry - Graham Gano ($4900) - Double digit points on FanDuel in 5 of his last 6 weeks.

Kill - Matt Bryant ($5000) - A super contrarian play because he isn't playing on Sunday.

Defense

Fuck - Lions ($4700) - The Chiefs cost only $100 more, but that's an obvious play. Detroit gets St. Louis, who has scored 36 points in their last 4 games combined.

Marry - Seahawks ($5300) - This is really odd. Matt Schaub is questionable for Sunday and Jimmy Clausen is his backup. He's started one game this season, with the Bears, against Seadderall, in the infamous 11 drive - 11 punt game. And in both games, all of his skill position players were out. Odd season for Jolly Ol' Saint Jim.

Kill - Patriots ($4900) - Defense hasn't been the same since Donta Hightower got hurt. Sorry folks, up against it this week, and no good ideas for Goodell Got It Right. We all lose.

Facebook pokes - 49ers, Packers, Chiefs, Jets

My #1 FanDuel Lineup

QB - Drew Brees
RB - Shaun Draughn
RB - Lamar Miller
WR - Odell Beckham Jr
WR - AJ Green
WR - Brandon Coleman
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Cairo Santos
DEF - Seahawks

***If you've never tried FanDuel and you're interested, this is a great time to try. I've got great deals from now until the end of the season, get at me on Twitter or Facebook OR simply follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 14 on FanDuel

Just one thing, Dude - do you have to use so many cuss words?

His Dirkness

Friday, December 4, 2015

FanDuel NFL Week 13: Fuck, Marry, Kill

Come with me. Hail Mary, run quick see.

Just a quick recap: This season the Detroit Lions nearly lost to the Packers via an onside kick recovery and a Hail Mary. That would've been deserving of its own award. One that only Detroit and Cleveland are capable of competing for.

But can we cool down on the Rodgers da Gawd talk today? He wasn't good for a majority of last night, just as he hasn't played up to his standards for a majority of this season.

Look, Rodgers deserves plenty of praise for lots of different things, but last night wasn't really one of them. It's just an easy thing for people to say, who don't really have an opinion, but still want their voice to be heard. It's sports small talk. It's a single serving conversation about the weather.

Last night he was bailed out by a lateral play, a facemask call, and a Hail Mary. Essentially, the Illuminati. That isn't clutch, as many have suggested. Clutch, atleast in my opinion, is the ability to come through when there is pressure to perform.

There's no pressure on a Hail Mary. It's just dumb luck. It's like winning the lottery. You wouldn't call somebody who just won $10 on a scratcher clutch ... or would you?

Regardless, this is exactly why my picks for this week will be so clutch. Because FanDuel is a game of skill. Not luck. Suck it, Jeb.

On to the Week 13 FMK's (find an older post for FMK explanations)...

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 13 on FanDuel

Quarterback

Fuck - Marcus Mariota ($7100) - I like a number of QB's in this price range, but Mariota is my favorite because he'll be low owned, has a high ceiling, and the only way Tennessee will be able to move the ball on Jacksonville is through the air.

Marry - Cameron Newton ($9000) - Chalkity, chalk, chalkkkkk. Cam will be the highest owned QB by far this week, so I won't have too much of him. However, every week I expect Newton, and the Panthers offense in general, to come back down to earth, and it just hasn't happened yet. It'd be funny if that were to finally happen against this putrid Saints defense.  

Kill - Tom Brady ($9400) - You want to know what was clutch? Tom Brady's drive to tie the game in Denver with one NFL quality receiver on the field. This is an interesting spot because the Eagles gave up defense for Lent or Hannukah or whatever witchcraft Chip Kelly believes in. But I can't spend this much on a QB of such a battered team - No Gronk, no Edelman, no Dion Lewis. No Brady.

Facebook pokes - Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith

Running Back

Fuck - Shaun Draughn ($5900) - My favorite play on the board this week. He played every snap last game. He catches passes. He hasn't produced huge yet, but he's played the Seahawks, Cardinals and Falcons (good run D's). Meanwhile, the Bears have the 29th ranked run defense. And he comes from Running Back University - (No, not UNC) Kansas City! Where every backup RB flourishes. 

FUCK - David Johnson ($5900) - That's right, my first ever double fuck. Marriage seems like kind of a sham these days anyways. Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington are both out, which means Dave John should play nearly every snap for a potent offense in a game they are likely to be winning throughout.

Kill - Todd Gurley ($8400) - TGIII is probably wearing down. His yards per carry hasn't been pretty the last 4 weeks. And he only played 29 of 74 snaps last week. He's an absolute stay away.

Facebook pokes - DeMarco Murray, Darren McFadden, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Javorious "Buck" Allen

Wide Receiver

Marry - Alshon Jeffrey ($7700) - All of the elite WR's are in play this week, but Alshon is cheaper and on the same tier IMO, so he earns the headline. Here's how I'd rank the Big 4:

1. Julio Jones - TB can't stop WR's, this one's almost too obvious
2. Odell Beckham Jr - NYJ shuts down the run and Revis is out
3. Antonio Brown - Huge bounce back potential with potent offense
4. DeAndre Hopkins - Will certainly be the lowest owned, is he losing steam though?

MARRY - Allen Robinson ($8000) - Double marry! Mormon alert! I'll try and keep this cleaner than BYU players have as of late. You save on RB's this week, so you can spend on WR's. This one is simple. Allen Hurns is out and A-Rob has had 100+ yards or a TD in every game since Week 5.

Kill - Sammy Watkins ($7000) - Don't chase the points. Don't do it. Last time Sammy went off like he did last week, he put up 3-14 the next game. He is not reliable.

Facebook pokes - The ELITES, AJ Green (no Eifert), Danny Amendola (if healthy), Brandon Lafell, Eric Decker, Kamar Aiken, John Brown

Tight End

Gronk - Travis Kelce ($6200) - The league's second best TE (sans Gronk) against the league's third worst TE defense. Check.

Marry - Greg Olsen ($6800) - The league's best TE (sans Gronk) against the league's worst TE defense. Checkmate.

Kill - Scott Chandler ($5300) - Yes, he ate up targets last week (sans Gronk), but surely the Patriots come up with something better for Sunday. He doesn't save you enough money and he'll be highly owned.

Facebook pokes - Gary Barnidge, Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed, Jacob Tamme

Kicker

Fuck - Robbie Gould ($4600) - My new strategy with kickers: If you fade a team that's in a favorable spot, then use their kicker. I love Cutler and Alshon this week, but if I'm using a lineup without them, I'll slide in Gould.

Marry - Cairo Santos ($4800) - Can you believe a team MVP costs only $4800?

Kill - Greg Zeurlein ($4500) - He's probably not playing. So don't play him.

Defense

Fuck - Redskins ($4400) - Remember, you're not necessarily playing Washington's defense here. You're playing against Matt Cassel.

Marry - Patriots ($4800) - Coming off a loss, big favorites, at home, Sam Bradford. Yup.

Kill - Goodell Got It Right! Nobody's favorite segment returns once again due to zero demand. This week? Roger's revenge on the Patriots! Hey, he finally won an appeal, you guys. It only took him 13 weeks to get there. So why did I like this when it led to a Broncos victory? Because people are all over Brock Osweiler right now and he's going to fail spectacularly in the playoffs this year. I'm already excited to watch it.

Facebook pokes - Steelers, Jets, Chiefs, Bengals

My #1 FanDuel Lineup

QB - Marcus Mariota
RB - Shaun Draughn
RB - David Johnson
WR - Julio Jones
WR - Allen Robinson
WR - Alshon Jeffrey
TE - Greg Olsen
K - Cairo Santos
DEF - Patriots

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 13 on FanDuel

Just one thing, Dude - do you have to use so many cuss words?

His Dirkness

Thursday, November 19, 2015

FanDuel NFL Week 11 - Fuck, Marry, Kill

Scott Freakin' Overfield.

In case you didn't know, he's the dude from Lawrence, KS who took 2nd place on #NotFanDuel and won $438,000 last week. 

When I heard the news, I immediately thought this dude was my new hero! An amateur daily fantasy player from the heartland who hit it big, shoving it in the face of everybody who said only professionals and robots win the big tournaments.

But then I listened to him on 610 with Parkins and C-dot. And I learned this was his first time playing. And he wasn't even tracking his lineup on Sunday night. And he's in last place in his season long league. And his strategy going forward was to play the same lineup that he just won big with. BITTER BEER FACE! (always remembered this as a Foster's commercial, but it's actually a mid-90's Keystone ad.)

The great news for chumps like us? His lineup wasn't even that great. He had Tyler Eifert (3-26) and Marvin Jones (4-44) on his squad. A good reminder that your team doesn't have to be perfect. You just need to hit on a few guys that not many people will be on. And that's my ticket to buying my own island.
On to the Week 11 FMK's (find an older post for FMK explanations)...

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 11 on FanDuel

Quarterback

Fuck - Mark Sanchez ($6400) - It's an NFL backup QB world, we're all just renting space. Sanchez, Brock Osweiler, Alex Smith and Case Keenum are all viable plays this week (I got jokes). But I expect Sanchez to be better than Samuel Bradford. He definitely was last season, when he was the 8th best fantasy QB after taking over for an injured Nick Foles.

Marry - Derek Carr ($7700) - Last week, I was almost exclusively Brady/Rodgers. This week, the top QB's all have question marks. And, unfortunately, the best QB in the NFL isn't playing this week (because the Saints defense won't be taking the field). Meanwhile, Carr has averaged 306 yards and 3.25 TD's his last four weeks, against much better competition than the Lions.

Kill - Tom Brady ($9200) - Interesting spot, but I think I'm staying away. When the Patriots played the Bills in Week 2, Brady dropped back 61 times, while they ran it only 10 times. But New England has now lost their LT, slot WR, and passing game RB. I fear it's possible we see a shift in strategy, but I still might squeeze Brady in a lineup or two.

Facebook pokes - Matthew Stafford, Alex, Case Keenum ($4800!!!)

Running Back

Fuck - Darren McFadden ($6800) - Great chance for a bounce back week here. McFadden burned a lot of people in a surprisingly tough matchup with the Bucs last week, so he might be low owned this week. Run DMc still played 44 of 50 snaps, while the other 6 went to Christine Michael, who just got cut. The Dolphins have the 31st ranked run D, and Tony Romo returns to open up even bigger holes for the league's best OL.

Marry - Adrian Peterson ($8900) - He's heating up! AP has torched the Raiders and Rams the past few weeks, both of which have/had decent run defenses. Now he gets a more favorable matchup in a huge game at home. However, the more shrewd move may be Gurley or Devonta Freeman, since they'll be less owned. Something I always look for on Fridays is ownership %'s from FanDuel's Thursday night leagues. It gives you a good idea of what to expect on Sunday. I used this dude's at Daily Fantasy Cafe and this dude's at RotoCurve. Big help for tournament plays.

Kill - DeMarco Murray ($7600) - The Buccaneers have allowed 3.2 ypc and 0 TD's over their last 4 weeks. They join my list of run defenses to shy away from - Jets, Falcons, Broncos, Jaguars, Seahawks, Steelers, Patriots and now the Bucs.

Facebook pokes - Gurley, Freeman, Chris Ivory, Charcanye West (heavy dosage), Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray

Wide Receiver

Fuck - Danny Amendola ($6000) - Curious to see his ownership this week, but he's almost a must start. The Patriots' gameplan last meeting with the Bills was quick, short passes. That meant Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman (combined for 17 catches), but both are both now injured. Amendola is the next Wes Welker Type up, which is essentially the Patriots' new mantra.

Marry - Calvin Johnson ($8100) - The Raiders' pass defense is a joke. Not much more to say here. If I'm not playing McFadden in a lineup, I'll probably be on Dez Bryant.

Kill - Julio Jones / DeAndre Hopkins / AJ Green ($8200-9100) - Some touch matchups for the elite WR's of 2015. Julio draws Vontae Davis. Hopkins draws Darrelle Revis. Green draws Patrick Peterson. Julio is a possibility, but I wouldn't touch the other two.

Facebook pokes - Dez, Mike Evans, Brandon Lafell, Davante Adams (21 targets last week!), Michael Crabtree (heavy dosage), Kamar Aiken, Stevie Johnson, Chris Givens (still the minimum!)

Tight End

Gronk - Jacob Tamme ($5300) - 22 targets over the last two weeks. No, I didn't know he was still in the league either.

Marry - Gronk ($8400) - Oh, that 76 yard TD was glorious last week. Won me some $$$. Again, without Edelman and Lewis, the remaining Patriots are all strong plays this week.

Kill - Antonio Gates ($5900) - Still banged up and the Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TE's in 2015.

Facebook pokes - Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Eric Ebron, Crockett Gillmore, Martellus Bennett

Kicker

Fuck - Dangerous Dan Bailey ($4600) - Two weeks in a row I'm spending the extra $100 on my low-level kicker. You wanna get nuts? LET'S GET NUTS.

Marry - Steven Hauschka ($5000) - 2+ field goals in 7 of 9 games. Seahawks should run through the 49ers, leading to plenty of chances.

Kill - Matt Prater ($4500) - Missed two XP's last week, which almost kept the 24 year winless streak at Lambeau intact, in the most Lions way possible.

Defense

Fuck - Chiefs ($4400) - FanDuel continues to Rodney Dangerfield KC's defense. Points allowed last 5 weeks: 18, 16, 13, 10, 13. Fantasy points scored last 5 weeks: 11, 7, 12, 14, 19. Giddy up.

Marry - Jets ($4700) - Everybody will be on the Seahawks at home against the 49ers. I'll save my $700 and take the Mean Green against TJ Yates. 

Kill - Goodell Got It Right! Goodell Got It Right! Nobody's favorite segment returns this week due to zero demand. This week? I dunno if I'd say Goodell got it right, per se. But I'm tired of the generic complaint of 2015: "Nobody knows what a catch is anymore." Just about every sports personality has tweeted that at some point this football season. We get it. Shaddup. It's almost as played out as the MJ crying face (ok, not even close - PLEASE STOP). And nobody ever offers a viable solution. Two feet down with possession isn't the answer, because then everything would be a catch. It's a pure judgment call, which is weird, because most judgment calls aren't suitable for replay. But this one is. And it's tough. All that being said, Dez caught it.

Facebook pokes - Bucs, Ravens, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks

My #1 FanDuel Lineup

QB - Derek Carr
RB - Charcandrick West
RB - Darren McFadden
WR - Calvin Johnson
WR - Michael Crabtree
WR - Danny Amendola
TE - Rob Gronkowski
K - Dan Bailey
DEF - Jets

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 11 on FanDuel

Just one thing, Dude - do you have to use so many cuss words?

His Dirkness
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