Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Breaking Down the Chiefs 2011 Schedule (Part Dos)

**Follow up article**

Breaking Down the Chiefs 2011 Schedule (Part One)

With the Chiefs sitting at 4-3-1 after the first 8 games of the season, lets see what the second half of the schedule has in store. Keep in mind, these are not the official Dirknosstications for the season, but essentially the median of the upcoming Chiefs season. Going by this same analysis, nobody would finish above 11-5 or below 4-12 (easier to be bad than it is to be good). The beauty of the NFL is that any team can over/underachieve simply by winning/losing their close games. That's what the good teams do, and that's what it will take for this team to make the playoffs once again.

On to the back 9, er 8....

Week 10: Denver Broncos
2010 Record: 4-12
Stock Watch: Neard-ing
What's New: The second pick in the NFL Draft, Von Miller, combined with the return of Elvis Dumervil gives the Donks a potentially scary outside pass rush. They also signed Willis McGahee, who should be my most hated player in the NFL following this game.
Outlook: The end of a 3 game home stand, happening before the 5 game stretch of death, screams of a potential glance over game. Luckily, it's a rivalry game, however that didn't help last season, as they almost stole the game at Arrowhead. Hopefully, the Schlonks get off to a bad start on the season and are entering Tebow Time by this point.
Win Potential: 85%

Week 11: @New England Patriots
2010 Record: 14-2
Stock Watch: Feminizing
What's New: Big names Chad Ochojoblow and Fat Albert Haynesworth have done little of note early on for The Flying Elvii. The Pats will also be moving to a base 4-3 defense, in effort to prove they're once again a step ahead of the rest of the league.
Outlook: This is most likely the toughest game on the schedule. It'd be rough enough going into one of the toughest stadiums in the NFL (in the regular season that is....Zzzzzzing!), but the Chiefs get the added pleasure of playing them on Monday Night Football. My best hope for this game is that we're a contender going in and that we keep it close. Or that we hurt Brady again.
Win Potential: 15%

Week 12: Pittsburgh Steelers
2010 Record: 11-5
Stock Watch: Super Bowl loser cursed
What's New: Well, Big Ben hasn't raped anybody this calendar year for a change. And they added Jerricho Cotchery, who has always been a Dirk-nician.
Outlook: The last time the Steelers came into Arrowhead Stadium fresh off a Super Bowl season, they went home defeated. Game two of the 5 game stretch of death, and by my count, the Chiefs need to come away with two victories out of the five. This might be one of their better chances, even if physical teams gave the Chiefs fits last season.
Win Potential: 40%

Week 13: @Chicago Bears
2010 Record: 11-5
Stock Watch: Cutlered in half
What's New: Everybody in the world has seen Jay Cutler for what he truly is, and 7 months isn't enough time for people to forget it. They also stole the ineffective parts of the Cowboys' offense, signing Marion Barber III and Roy "No Tippin" Williams.
Outlook: This will be the easiest of the 5 game stretch of death, even if it does come on the road. I expect the Bears to take more than a few steps back this year after their meltdown on national TV in the NFC Championship. Hell, I can't even figure out how they were good last season.
Win Potential: 45%

Week 14: @New York Jets
2010 Record: 11-5
Stock Watch: Cranium-inflating
What's New: Plaxxxxxxxxx. Hopefully, he gets the Mike Vick treatment and sees total glorification because of his time in the slammer.
Outlook: The Jets have proved me wrong two years running, and if they do so again, I'm ready to anoint Rex Ryan as a top 5 NFL head coach. The absolute blueprint to beating the Chiefs last season was with a top flight CB (Nnamdi, Chump Bailey, etc.) taking D-Bowe out of the game, and focusing the rest of the defense on God Jam Charles. The Chiefs offense had no answer. Hopefully, that problem has been solved this year or else Revis and the Jets might shut us out.
Win Potential: 30%

Week 15: Green Bay Packers
2010 Record: 10-6
Stock Watch: Only one way it doesn't go down
What's New: Lost a few minor pieces (DE Cullen Jenkins), and return a few from injuries (TE JerMichael Finley), but essentially the same team as last season.
Outlook: The Chiefs have a decent history when facing defending Super Bowl champs, especially at Arrowhead (all the way back to Green Bay in the 90's - Sean LaChapelle shoutout). The Chiefs corners will be tested in this one, and not only their top pair, but the reserves as well, which worries me (Javier hasn't shown me much in that role). If the Chiefs win this one, they'll have the Arrowhead crowd to thank.
Win Potential: 35%

Week 16: Oakland Raiders
2010 Record: 8-8
Stock Watch: Wholly blackened
What's New: The Raiders picked up Al Saunders as their Offensive Coordinator. Is he still relevant?
Outlook: The Raiders continue to pose a serious threat towards the Chiefs because they'll have one of the NFL's top running games. And with two teams that thrive at running the ball, I almost throw home field advantage out the window, because that's the best way to neutralize it. So I don't see this game as all that more winnable than the game in Oakland. We cannot lose both games to the Raiders once again. Just can't happen.
Win Potential: 65%

Week 17: @Denver Broncos
2010 Record: 4-12
Stock Watch: Tebownizing
What's New: New head coach John Fox has always been one of the more underrated headsets in the NFL.
Outlook: In all likelihood, the Broncos will be out of the playoff race and will most likely be starting Tim Tebow at this point. For as much flak as Tebow has gotten this preseason (hello Merrill Hoge), his numbers have been pretty good (aside from the game that he attempted 2 passes, which I can't even begin to make sense of). I'm not sure if it'd be more enjoyable to see Tebow fail with the Broncos, or see Denver ship him off and see him succeed elsewhere. Oh, and am I afraid of a must win game in Denver to make the playoffs? Yes, petrified even.
Win Potential: 65%

By my count, the Chiefs will finish the 2011 season with a 7.89 - 8.11 record. I'd say the most commonly predicted record has been 8-8, and the Vegas over/under of 7.5 is very accurate. However, I assure you that there is a 100% chance that I will not predict an 8-8 record.

Alright Crodies, let me see your win potentials on the 16 games this season. It's a good healthy activity. Ecokat would approve.

His Dirkness


DBZ said...

A bit tougher back 9, as you put it. Despite being back to a normal schedule, I think this is more the year we'll really turn the corner. We beat a lot of poor teams pretty thoroughly last year and lost some really close games to good teams. Secondary will be a year older. The D-line will get to the next level (not in a Grbac way). The only piece I see as a big wild card is the fact that we are changing offensive coordinators again.


Anonymous said...

I agree with DBZ I hate the fact that we lost Weis. Continuity is the easiest way to be successful. I expect offensive pains to happen early in the season.

I feel strongly that if we do make the playoffs this year then we will be a force for a long while.

I think the key to making the playoffs every year is not necessarily put all on your starters, but on the quality of your back ups as well. The reason is, because of the high amount of injuries in the NFL every year.

When the Chiefs reach the point of having solid 2nd and 3rd team guys at every position then that is the point we start making the playoffs every year. We are not at that point yet, but are significantly closer than we were 2 years ago or even last year. I am guessing 3 more seasons until we have reached that level.

I'm borrowing the words of Pioli for a second, but he said it's more important to look at what the floor of a player is when drafting or picking them up in free agency rather than the ceiling. I think this is the reason we drafted Tyson Jackson.

This way so when injuries happen and they always do you can put someone in the game that is formidable.

Also it gives you many options of trading people to other teams for picks. It may be your 3rd team guy, but if they had to fill in for a starter and did adequate you might have grounds for getting a 4th or 5th round pick out of the deal depending on the severity of that teams needs for that position.

This is why in the past New England has been able to pull off crazy things in the draft. Having lots of extra picks affords you the ability to be flexible as a team and have more control over free agency and the draft. Look at the teams that are bad at managing the amount of picks they have...obviously Oakland, Dallas and Washington immediately come to mind. These teams have gotten old and began to struggle in the past few years. It comes down to wanting success now or having the patience to build success.

I don't think the Chiefs are at the pinnacle point yet so I'm going to predict 7 - 9 with the worst they can do being 6 - 10 and the best being 11 - 5.

-Dr. Ludwig Von ZavMises