Sunday, February 6, 2011

Super Bowl XLV Preview

I began Super Bowl week surprised that Green Bay was favored over Pittsburgh by 2.5 points (I would've guessed something like -4.5 for Pitt). Even more surprising, is the public support behind the Packers. If I had to guess, I'd say 75% (if not more) of the predictions I've heard have been for Green Bay. So do people really feel that strongly about the Packers or are they just bored with the Steelers? Although, the Colts are around year in and year out, and everybody was picking them over the Saints last year. So do the experts know something that we, or atleast I, don't? Perhaps some, dare I say, insiiiiide informaaaaation?!? (Remember when Around the Horn was good?) So I did some investigative work (looked on the Internet) and dug as deep as I could into the depths of my brain (drank alot) to find the real reasons. Here's what I gots...

  • Pittsburgh's past 2 Super Bowl wins have come against two of the worst teams to ever make the Super Bowl. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals represented the NFC at the height of the AFC's dominance. The Steelers weren't forced to do anything extraordinary to win those games. That won't be the case in today's game.
  • The past two teams (and perhaps only two? Don't worry, I'm firing my assistant) to win three road games on their road to the Super Bowl were victorious in the big game. The Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Seabags and the New York Giants beat the previously undefeated New England Patriots a few years back. Is there something to this or just a co-winky-dink?
  • Green Bay's strength matches up well against Pittsburgh's weakness. The Packers like to spread teams out and pick on the defense's weak cornerbacks. The Steelers cornerbacks are nothing to write home about. I expect a bevy of 7 yard stop routes out of the Packers (enough to annoy everybody watching at home).
  • Green Bay's weakness matches up well against Pittsburgh's strength. Nobody runs on the Steelers. The Packers don't run on anybody. It'll be interesting to see how the Packers attack them with the run, if at all.

I expect this to be the 18th best Super Bowl of all time, here's a list of my Top 5:

1. XLII: New York Giants over New England Patriots
2. XXXVI: New England Patriots over St. Louis Rams
3. XXXVIII: New England Patriots over Carolina Panthers
4. XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers over Arizona Cardinals
5. XXXIV: St. Louis Rams over Tennessee Titans

Prediction: I think the pressure on both quarterbacks is about equal. I feel Roethlisberger has higher expectations on his head because he's been here, done that before. On the other side, Rodgers has yet to win one, so he has more to lose. I think whichever team's quarterback plays better wins. Since I've always been one to go with the masses, I'm gonna join the bandwagon and predict a Packers victory.

Score: Green Bay Packers 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Prop Bets: Here are some bets that I have made the enhance my Super Bowl experience:
  • Christina Aguilera holding the Brave note for longer than 6 seconds (-140)
  • First score of the game: Green Bay field goal (7/2)
  • Highest scoring quarter of the game: 3rd (+350)
  • Total Sacks: Over 5 (-135)
  • First missed FG of the game: Short or blocked (+1000)
  • Distance of first punt: Under 44.5 yards (-115)
  • First penalty of the game: Green Bay (+110)
  • Successful 2 pointer in the game? Yes (+375)
  • What will Fergie be wearing for the halftime show? Thong/G-String/Bikini (+1000)
  • Super Bowl winning Gatorade color: Blue (10/1!)
  • Who will Super Bowl MVP thank first? God (+150)
  • Who will announcers say has better hair during the game- Polamalu or Clay Matthews? Polamalu (-140)
  • How many times will Fox mention Brett Favre? Under 2.5 (+140)
His Dirkness


His Dirkness said...

I figured that I bet $10 on all of those prop bets. Lets see how I would've came out if that had been the case.

First off, nailed Packers winning by 6, that's gotta be worth something. I'll say +$10 because I probably would've bet something on the outcome.

Christina Aguilera: +7.12
Highest Scoring Quarter: -10
Sacks: -10
First Missed FG: -10
Distance of First Punt: +8.70
First Penalty: -10
Successful 2 pointer: +37.50
Fergie: -10 (I guess...)
Gatorade: -10 (orange)
MVP Thank: -10 (nobody)
Better Hair: 0 (never declared)
Brett Favre: +14

Total: +$77.32

Betting on Green Bay to win by 4-6 points would've scored me $55

Gambling should be legal.

His Dirstayness

Anonymous said...

This is a cool post. It took me a few days to get around to reading it.


DBZ said...

Lol. I like.