NBA Finals Preview

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It has slowly dawned on me that I am about to hate everything associated with the Miami Heat. That's what happens with your team's opponent in a series with these implications on the line. It's very easy to hate a team in the NBA. Everybody whines. Everybody flops. If there's a team that you want to hate, you will hate them. And I want to hate the Miami Heat. I've been on the fence with them throughout most of the season because I loved the intrigue they brought to the NBA's regular season. But the regular season is no longer. My hatred has slowly grown throughout the playoffs, with what I perceive as unearned knob-slobbing. But my hatred is nowhere near where it's about to be. I already cannot stand watching these little videos about them on ESPN, hearing them complain about how nobody likes them, sounding like a bunch of school boy bitches. I look forward to my hatred though. Cheering for the Heat was fun for a little while, but I doubt I'll ever be able to go back to rooting for them after this series. I find myself glad that fate intervened and forced my hatred for Miami Heat.

If you haven't kept up with me this week be sure to read my previous write ups before tonight's Game 1:

The Key to the Dallas Mavericks' Success
Top 10 Reasons to be Excited for NBA Finals
Why you should Root for Dirk and the Mavs

On to the series....

Lebron v. Dirk - Let me start by saying that Lebron will have to outplay Dirk for the Heat to win the NBA Championship. Dirk has more help around him and the Mavs could survive an off game from him more easily than the Heat could 'Bron. If the Heat decide to double Dirk, he won't put up big numbers because he'll simply look to pass out of it every time. The Heat will throw a number of bodies at him including Chris Bosh (who plays defense Like a Bosh), Udonis Randy Mosslem (had success in 2006), and yes, even Lebronius. I'm a tiny bit afraid that 'Bron will find success in defending Dirk. He's got the perfect body frame to do so. However, he can't guard him the whole game (he'd wear out), but if he finds success, you might see Lebron on Dirk at the ends of games (oh, what a sight). The Mavs will put Shawn Marion on 'Bron for starters, but they will throw a number of different looks at him. The Mavs play more zone than anybody in the NBA (expect a lot of it), and at the end of the Thunder series actually had Kidd (who leads the NBA Playoffs in steals) guarding Durant, while Marion took Westbrook (never would've guessed that to begin with). The two stars very well could decide this series, but I think it's 'Bron who is the bigger deciding factor for his team (see how I just took all the pressure off Dirk there?).

Mavs' biggest problem - If the Miami Heat go small. If 'Bron finds success covering Dirk on the defensive end, the Heat will have the option to play him at the 4 spot, which creates mega matchup problems for the Mavs (Dirk ain't covering Lebron - side note - have we ever established if the B in Lebron is supposed to be capitalized?). They'd be forced to take Tyson Chandler out of the game, and when that happened against the Thunder, they scored on a number of easy shots. Dirk would be forced to cover Bosh (a mismatch in itself), and the Mavs would be without their defensive intimidator (Dirk cannot protect the rim or rebound well enough). Hopefully, Eric Spoelstra isn't smart enough to see this, or I'm wrong in my prediction, but keep an eye out for the Heat going small in this series.

Heat's biggest problem - JJ Barea. I'm 97% convinced that it's nearly impossible to shut down Barea on his offensive end. The way you take him out of the game is by capitalizing on his defensive short-comings (pun alert). If a guard has any sort of a post game, he will simply abuse The Streakin' Rican. However, the Heat's options at point guard don't pose much of a threat. Neither Mario Chalmers or Mike Bibby have any kind a post game. I'm expecting to see a lot of Barea in this series (also a lot of DeShawn Stevenson, who held DWade to 2 points in 30 minutes in the regular season. Although, I don't think this is a good series for Peja Stojanky Nuts, who cannot keep up with Wade or Bron). I do believe Barea has an outside shot at Finals MVP (rare enough, that I can't even get betting odds on it).

Heat strategery - Run Lola, run. The Heat have a decided advantage in team speed and overall athleticism. If the game turns into an up and down game, that strongly favors the younger Heat, considering they have two of the best transition players to ever play the game (Chalmers and Mike Miller, of course). Although, the Mavs have played a pretty up tempo game so far in these playoffs, so it'll be interesting to see if they purposely try and slow the game down.

Mavs strategery - Offensive efficiency. There has been a lot of talk about the defense of the Miami Heat, but they have yet to face an offense as versatile and effective as the Dirks. The Mavs pride themselves on always getting good shots, which begins and ends with Jason Kidd (literally because he's become such a good jump shooter out of nowhere). If they decide to double Dirk, he will look to pass out of it every time, most likely leading to a 3 point bomb from one of their many snipers - and the list is long - Terry, Barea, Kidd, Stojanky, hopefully not DeShawn.

Dwyane Wade - DWizzly looked very pedestrian in the Eastern Conference finals. If he puts up anything like that in these NBA Finals, the Heat will be toast. The Mavs will put up much more on the offensive end than the Bulls, and the Heat will need to counter that with 2 of their 3 studs putting up big numbers every game. If only 1 of them goes off, the Mavs will win. And if D-Wade doesn't put up big numbers, that puts all the pressure on Chris Bosh's shoulders, exactly where the Dirkness wants it.

Rebounding - The most telling stat in Basketball for me. If you control the boards, most of the time you'll control the game. You'd think the Heat would struggle in this category (or atleast I did) without a true center, but they actually rank better than the Mavs in these playoffs. Most likely, it is because they rebound well from the guard positions. The tide turned for the Heat after Game 1 against the Bulls, when they were able to even the rebounding, and thus, dominate the series. The Mavs have actually been out-rebounded so far in these playoffs. I literally just said this, but it bears repeating, whoever controls the boards will control these games.

PreDirktion - Gee, who ya think I'm going with here? I'm gonna believe what I've seen throughout these playoffs though - that nobody has looked better than the Dallas Mavericks. While watching both conference finals seriesi, I constantly remarked to anybody that would listen (thank you, Twitter) that the Mavs looked far superior to both the Heat and the Bulls. Barring a complete and utter dominating performance out of Lebron (which is about 25% possible), I'm taking the Mavs in a breeze. I think Dirk is on an absolute mission, and everybody on his team would literally go to war with him right now (good thing we're not in the 1940's). I believe the Heat are a bit full of themselves after marching through the weaker Eastern Conference, and won't be prepared for what they're about to run into. Unlike 2006, I believe this Mavs team has the necessary killer instinct to drive the stake into the heart. And they will.

Dallas Mavericks over Miami Heat in 5

His Dirkness

NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

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EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS PREVIEW

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

I couldn't imagine a funner pairing. Two of my three favorite teams battling it out for the Western Conference Finals (reminds me a lot of the Mavs-Suns series in 2006). Dirk and Durant are two of my very favorite playas in the NBA (interestingly enough, the last time I cheered against Durant, I applauded him throughout the game - against KU in Allen Fieldhouse). However, there is little doubt in my mind that my allegiances align with the Mavs (and with The Man). I am unbelievably excited for this to begin (only the premier of Franklin & Bash could compare), and will be glued to my TV for every single minute of this series.

*Dirk's Last Run? With Dirk's body wearing down more and more (although, he seemingly reinvents his game a little bit every year as the process proceeds) you have to wonder if this is his last chance at a ring. The Mavs are the type of team that can only truly make runs in transition years in the NBA (their last run coming before the Laker years). The Spurs were around before that, but they do the same thing, just better (however, even they are done now). The NBA is easier to forecast than the other professional sports, and we are entering a time that will be dominated by the Heat, Thunder, Bulls, and maybe Knicks. Once the Thunder evolve into what they are destined to be, the Mavs will have a much tougher time upstaging them. So even though I only project one dominant team in the Western Conference over the next handful of years, I expect them to be so superior to the Mavs, and that this will indeed be Dirka Dirka's last run at an NBA Championship.

*Rusty Mavs - My biggest concern (or atleast 1 of 2) is the time off in between games for the Mavs. They last played two Sundays ago. That's 8 days in between. The time off may be good for the legs of fogies like J-Kidd and Peja and Marion and Terry and Dirk (damn, this team is old), but you never encounter anything like that throughout the entire season. Basketball is a rhythm sport (and they were coming off the best rhythm I may have ever seen), and it's impossible to tell whether they still have the touch or not. This has me very worried about Game 1 for the Mavs, where it'll take atleast a quarter for them to get back into rhythm with each other. In fact, I fully expect the Thunder to come in and steal home court advantage tonight because of the Mavs' reliance on jumpshots.

*Mavs as favorites? I was all excited about how the Mavs were sitting pretty following their clubbing of the Lake show, because of how little they were being talked about nationally. Their performance in Game 4 was the best game a team has played in these NBA Playoffs (not as big a case of the Lakers quitting as everybody, including me, wanted to think). The barrage of 3 pointers was really like nothing I had seen before (Jason Terry and Peja StojankyNuts combining to go 15-16. Seriously. 15 of 16.). The Lakers may have been well on their way to quitting, but we'll never really know because the Mavs buried them alive. Not to mention, how everybody had foolishly fallen head over heels for the Heat after squeaking out victories against a team who's 2nd best player had 1 elbow. The Mavs were flying perfectly under the radar, just how they like it, or so I had thought...

But the past two days I've been watching ESPN and I literally haven't heard a single expert pick the oKC Thunder. Not a single one. I think I saw a fan poll on the series winner that came out to about 50-50, but I was in some kind of haze at the time. Needless to say, the Mavs do not thrive in the role as favorites (although this team has been turning many of their perceptions into misconceptions). I think if it were up to them, they'd fly under the radar the whole way, not necessarily as the underdogs, but just not talked about. They don't want the spotlight shone on them (hence the meltdown in the Finals, where the lights are the brightest). However, if they are able to handle the spotlight, and their new roles as favorites, I believe it's finally time to put everything we once thought about the Mavs to bed.

*Series Breakdown/The Wire - My biggest worry is who will guard Russell Westbrook (Stringer Bell), who scares the bejesus outta me. He seemed to have finally found the correct balance in Game 7 as a scoring point guard and a distributor to Kevin Durant (Avon Barksdale). Kidd is definitely not fast enough. DeShawn probably isn't either. Terry is, but he gives up a lot in size to RWB (I will say that I like Marion covering Durant though). I think we might see a lot of Corey Brewer in this series, the most athletic perimeter player the Mavs have (and somebody I believe in). It might take a few games to figure that out though (however, coaching advantage goes to the Mavs). I'm also very excited for the rebounding wars (corner wars) between Kendrick Perkins (Slim Charles) and Tyson Chandler (Chris Partlow). Meanwhile, Jason Whitlock (Prop Joe) thinks Serge Iblocka (hopefully not Kenard) could provide the best cover on Dirk (Omar) in the NBA. All these matchups got me feeling a little bit like Clay Davis...."Sheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeit."

*PreDirktion - This series boils down to who's on a bigger mission - Dirk or Durant. While I think Durant showed great prowess in a Game 7 victory, I think he knows he's got many years ahead of him. Meanwhile, I think Dirk has been meditating somewhere in the Himalayas for the past 8 days, and is ready to fully seize the opportunity in front of him. He can't say "there's always next year" as easily as The Durantula can. So, even though I began writing this preview with the belief that I was picking the Thunder, I have settled back on to the Mavs, because I truly believe that Dirk is on a mission.

Mavs over Thunder in 7

his dirkness

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Preview

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Miami Heat vs. Chicago Bulls

Miami Heat - Am I the only one suffering from a bit of Heat exhaustion lately? I get that the Miami Heat are the biggest story of these NBA Playoffs. What I don't get is why everybody was so skeptical of them before the playoffs started, but are now convinced they are invincible. What exactly have they done to impress everybody so much? They took care of the 76ers (who nobody would mistake as a good team), but not in overly impressive fashion (only dominating one game of the series - Game 2). But the real overreaction came after defeating the Celtics in the first two games in the next round. But why? Both games were at home. They did nothing but hold serve. Then they got slaughtered in Game 3 at Boston. Then Rajon Rondo got hurt. I'm not completely convinced that the Heat were winning that series if Rondo hadn't got hurt. Even without Rondo, the Celtics led throughout most of Games 4 & 5. Now you might say I'm being nitpicky at this point, but I'm not arguing that the Heat aren't playing well. I'm arguing against the popular belief that they are the overwhelming favorite to win the NBA Title right now.

Chicago Bulls - The least impressive team of the NBA Playoffs up until their Game 6 beatdown of the ATLiens. But seriously, The Pacers? The Hawks? The Bulls may just be a grind it out type of team, but they've had to work way too hard to beat these two chumps. But not only have they failed to impress, they're also a pretty boring team to watch because of their reliance on D-Rose getting to the foul line time and time again (and if he ain't gettin calls, they ain't winning). It'll be interesting to note the progress of Carlos Boozer, who was the Bulls choice for a max contract last offseason, and has been sucking it up this postseason. For fun, imagine who else that money could've been spent on, and what the Bulls might look like right now. Yes, they very easily could've won the Lebronathon and would be waltzing towards an NBA Title right now (this is why it's tough to take LeBron's claim seriously that he wanted to win as many championships as possible).

LeBron James - He finally closed out a game, giving most of the NBA world a gi-massive LeBoner. However, look at how he did it. With jumpshots. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: LeBron's downfall will continue to be his jumpshot. He's not good at them, and he can't say no to them. I don't think he'll be able to win an NBA Title until he's fully committed to driving to the basket. I see little reason why he should ever shoot a 3 pointer. He's too unstoppable on the move. In fact, if I were guarding him (always loved bangin' with bigger bodies), I would play off of him ala Rajon Rondo. Let him shoot all the jumpers he wants. However, given that this was one of his first closeouts of the season, and that he has been unsuccessfully driving to the basket on most of his opportunities this season, I have almost zero tangible evidence to back up this claim. That doesn't make me believe it any less.

Bulls sweep Heat - No this isn't a prediction. It was the fact of the matter from the regular season this year (although LeBron was LeLong Duck Dong for 1 of the 3). Normally, this would hold very little significance with me. Howeverrrrrrrrrr, the Miami Heat treated this NBA regular season like no team has since the Jordan days. So maybe there is something there. A matchup, a nuance, a hatred. Something. So is it a factor? More than it normally would be, but definitely not the decider.

PreDirktion: We have yet to see a truly great series in these NBA Playoffs. The Grizzlies over the Spurs was one of the better upsets of all time, but not impactful enough to define these 'offs. The Thunder and Grizz are going to 7 (which might elevate its' status), but hasn't been well played thus far. I think this series is it. The Bulls will win games by dominating the boards and wearing D-Wade out on the defensive end by guarding D-Rose (already phoning my nickname squad). The Heat will win games when both LeBron and Wade go off in the same game or when D-Rose isn't getting to the foul line. I think this one's going the distance. Maybe, even, going for speed?

Heat over Bulls in 7

See ya in the Finals, chumps,

His Dirkness