NCAA Tournament Thoughts (Looking at KU, Mizzou & K-State)

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What up with it Ekpe Udoh....

*The biggest news of today is Syracuse's best big man, Fab Melo, getting shabazz'd for the entirety of the NCAA Tournament. The Orange were already the least renowned of the 1 seeds. Beyond that, is anybody else shocked, SHOCKED, to see a dude named "Fab" get suspended? I thought it was a joke when I first saw this guy's name, especially at Syrcause, given their history with "Melo." He sounds like he should be Carmelo Anthony's wrestling manager (in the mold of Slick).

*Filled out my second bracket yesterday (by hand) while listening to Billy Bragg & Wilco's Mermaid Avenue (fantastic CD). It was for my Mom's work so I went very anti-Big 12 (a key for any local pool) and very upset heavy in the first round (because they have a weird rule about upsets getting you extra points). Ended up looking like this...

Final Four: 1 Kentucky, 3 Marquette, 2 Ohio St, 1 North Carolina
National Championship: 2 Ohio St over 1 Kentucky
KU/MU/K-State: MU lose to Marquette, KU lose to St. Mary's, KSU lose to S. Miss
Surprises: 13 New Mexico St (Sweet 16), UNLV (Elite 8), NC State (Elite 8)

*Ranking the National Championship Likelihoods:
1. North Carolina
2. Kentucky
3. Ohio St.
4. Michigan St.
5. Missouri
6. Kansas
7. Florida St.
8. Duke
9. Syracuse
10. Butler

*This leads me to an interesting hypothetical for KU fans - If I were to offer you right now a trip to the National Championship Game that ended in defeat to the Missouri Tigers, would you accept? Think about that. Would love to hear your answer via Facebook, Twitter, Xanga, or you can tell me in person while I stare at my phone or the TV.

*I read a story from the Detroit newspaper talking about the Titans' reaction to drawing the Kansas Jayhawks. One of their players brought up the fact that KU lost to Bucknell a few years ago. This made me think that the whole mid-major thing has begun to snowball for the Jayhawks. Players from mid-majors have an increased amount of confidence when playing against KU because of their history. While they may be afraid of the likes of Michigan St or North Carolina, they step on the court with KU thinking/knowing they have a chance to win.

*P.S. KU plays late on Friday night, the same time slot as when they lost to Bucknell and Bradley.

*Not afraid of Detroit yet? How about the fact they have a father/son combo as coach/star player? While I'm not sure why Titans star Ray McCallum has received so much hype (his stats are just ok - 16 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4 apg), I hate the fact that I can compare him and his father to Cinderella OG's Bryce & Homer Drew of Valparaiso.

*All that being said, in the same article from the Detroit newspaper, the coach and some players were complaining about being shipped "far away" to Omaha. If that's one of their biggest takeaways then I ain't scurred. Prediction: KU by 24.

*Speaking of potentially fun matchups, North Carolina's Harrison Barnes and Creighton's Doug McDermott (each team's best player) were high school teammates in Iowa. Enough people are talking about this, that Alabama over Creighton looks more appealing by the day. And for the record, I don't think Creighton would have a shot against North Carolina.

*Missourahhhhhh - I watched the hardcore brackets show on TruTV and couldn't believe how much bitching there was about Missouri getting the 8th overall seed. Who cares? And shouldn't the other teams be upset about Missouri drawing the weakest 1 seed? The analysts could not get over this.

*Florida is the type of team (West Virginia and Michigan St also come to mind) that consistently overachieves in the NCAA Tournament. Not to mention, a lot of talent there. That is a rough, rough draw for Mizzou in the 2nd round. Would much rather see St. Mary's (or the unlikelier Purdue) then Florida, even given KU's history against mid-majors.

*Beyond that, Missouri plays a very similar style as 3-seeded Marquette, with 4 guards and 1 big man. I think this hurts them, because the biggest thing going for them is the uniqueness of their style. KU already played 3-seeded Georgetown this year, and for whatever reason, they don't scare me at all (evidenced by picking NC State to advance to the Sweet 16 in both my brackets so far). That's as far as I'll go for now, as any Elite 8 matchup would deserve more of my attention.

*K-State - Suddenly, a very intriguing matchup in Round 2 (suck on that, Bracketologists!) with Syracuse. Without Fabulous Melo, K-State has a bonafide advantage down low (looking at you, Enrique Inglesias Robertz). Defensive rebounding was already a weakness for 'Cuse, now it's a Jeremy Lin sized chink in the armor. Veddy intawesting.

*Before we get to that, K-State has to take on Larry Eustachy and the Big 12's hottest coeds Southern Miss Golden Eagles. I know nothing about their team, but word on the street is they been slacking lately (a quick gander at their schedule confirms). I offer nothing else but my rooting interests to KSU so I can look forward to Syracuse v. Kansas State.

*One last note, this is K-State's chance for revenge on Syracuse after that terrible, horrible, no good, very bad celebration flag on them in whatever year's Pinstripe Bowl. Historintrigue.

Thoughts on the other 65 teams coming tomorrow,
I need a drink,
His Dirkness

College Football Week 5: What 2 Watch 4

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With bye weeks looming for both of my teams this week, I thought I'd take a more expansive look at what's happening around the country this weekend, starting with College. I'll share any and all thoughts I have for this weekend's run of games. Quick note: It's going to be tough for any team to out-impress Nebraska's 17-3 victory over South Dakota St. last week. They completely dominated the Jackrabbits.

On to the games (teams ranked according to Dirkness Top 25):

11am- Kansas at Baylor- The Bears have been steady so far, blowing out three lesser teams and getting blown themselves by their big little brother, TCU. The Jayhawks have been anything but stable, somewhere between this guy and this guy. They tend to show up on even numbered weeks (beat GT, blow out NMSU) and fall flat on their face on odd numbered weeks (losses to NDSU and S-Miss). That's good news for lil' Baylor, who's Robert Griffin (III!) is rounding back into form after missing all of last year. KU might be set up for the future with a freshman quarterback and running back leading the way, but they ain't there yet. Predirktion: Baylor 27-17.

2:30- (22)Texas vs (8)Oklahoma- This game lost a lot of its luster after the Longhorns crapped the bed against UCLA (who had already lost to K-State and to Stanford 35-0). Oklahoma has three different one-score victories to their credit over mediocre teams (Utah St, Air Force, Cincinnati) coupled with a stomping of Florida St, who should prove to be the toughest of those teams. So is motivation the problem? Or did they just play over their heads that one game? Something tells me both of these teams are overrated in one of the worse Red River Shootouts we've seen in a while. If that's true, then the Big 12 is headed for a down season (good news for the Huskers!), its last in existence. I think Texas comes out fired up, but this game rarely produces upsets, which makes it a relatively overrated rivalry in my books, so I'm going chalk. Predirktion: Oklahoma 20-19.

7:00- (9)Florida at (2)Alabama- The Gators have improved every week after (literally) fumbling 15 snaps in its first game. That decision to cancel fall practice so the team could watch Tim Tebow preseason highlights may have backfired. Alabama expended a lot of energy in their comeback victory over Arkansas last week (and it doesn't get easier traveling to South Carolina next week). Will that play a factor? I say yes. Their defense looked vulnerable, and if Arkansas would've kept their foot on the gas they would have come away victorious. The Tide rolls with RB's Mark Ingram (averaging an astonishing 9.3 yards per carry) and Trent Richardson (7.6 ypc). The Gators counter with the 11th ranked rush defense in the country. Strength vs. strength. Florida has been looking forward to this game all offseason. They want to be the team to spoil Alabama's shot at a repeat, much like 'Bama did to them last season. Florida has to manufacture points to win which puts this game squarely on Urban Meyer's shoulders. I think he's been saving just enough. Predirktion: Florida 20-17.

7:00- (3)Stanford at (4)Oregon- Possibly the Dirkness Game of the Year. Regular season Dirkness-favorite Stanford travels to the renowned Autzen Stadium, home of preseason Dirkness-favorite Oregon.  The Mighty Ducks gave up 597 total yards to Arizona St. last week, and probably would've lost if they hadn't forced 7 turnovers, which solicited a demotion in the Dirkness 25. Meanwhile, Stanford is crushing opponents (on the road nonetheless) at an impressive, albeit nationally unknown, rate. If I were in charge, and the first rankings didn't come out until three weeks had been played, Stanford would be properly rated in the Top 5 right now. The other top storyline of this game is the rise of the Pac-10, with three Top 10 teams in my latest poll (most of any conference). The Cardinal are led by Andrew Luck, who has defaulted his way to the top of my Quarterback list (after Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett's failures- might just be his turn this week). This game should be a shootout with two of the Top 4 scoring offenses in the country (Oregon-1st, Stan-4th). The difference will be Jimmy Harbaugh's stout defense. This game is MUST SEE TV! Predirktion: Stanford 34-30.

His Dirkness

2010 College Football Preseason Top 25.....BUT

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Making a National Championship pick this year is a struggle. Go ahead and try, it's not easy. Last year you chose between Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, or maybe Alabama if you were crazy like a fox (like this guy--will post my 2009 predictions for everybody to marvel at--just ignore my NFL picks). All the same teams are back, but with major questions to answer. I can think of at least one clear cut reason not to pick each and every team to win it all (and I'll prove it here in a bit), which leads me to believe we could be looking at the 2010 National Champion in possession of a loss (never fun-because too much is decided by preseason polls). Alabama is considered the favorite (although I've heard few people actually pick them to win it--Ohio St and Oklahoma are the two teams I've been hearing the most) almost by default. The College Gameday preview had 3 analysts pick six different teams to reach the National Championship game. This is precisely what you want going into a season.

This Top 25 list is not reflective of my final predictions (coming soon!). With each team I will give the main reason (BUT...) I am hesitant to place the preseason crown atop their head. Every team is flawed, which means the difference could arise from a source we're completely unaware of, which is always fun. On to the rankings....

1. Ohio St- Could be Terrell Pryor's breakout year, BUT...can he be trusted? Also two tough road games at Wisconsin and Iowa stand in the way.

2. Alabama- Return near everybody on offense, BUT...return only 1 starter from their dominating defense of 2009.

3. Boise St- 49-4 under head coach Chris Peterson, BUT...the odds aren't in their favor. It's difficult to go undefeated, you need breaks along the way, and sometimes the ball just doesn't bounce your way. How motivated did everybody stay coming off last year's success?

4. Oregon- Was my National Champion pick, BUT...returning Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli got booted from the team (now at Ole Miss) amidst team-wide discipline issues.

5. Oklahoma- The chic pick to fulfill the Big 12's annual losing position in the National Championship, BUT...common sense stands in their way. They lost three Top-5 picks to the NFL Draft off a team that lost five games.

6. Virginia Tech- 12th year senior Tyrod Taylor returns along with 1,655 yard rusher Ryan Williams, BUT...lose 8 starters on defense. First week matchup against Boise St should be a doozy. Mark your calendars-Sept. 7th.

7. Iowa- Should have the best defensive line in the country, BUT...high expectations have derailed the Hawkeyes before.

8. Florida- Urban Meyer got over his Post-Tebowum Depression, BUT...losing Tebow was probably worth getting depressed.

9. Nebraska- Mucho preseason love from pundits and friends (somewhat scary to me), BUT...do they have a Quarterback worthy of the praise? Are we all underestimating the impact of losing Ndominant Suh.

10. Wisconsin- Return 10 starters on offense, BUT...only 5 on defense. Maybe overachieved a little bit last year, which could leave them vulnerable to underachievement.

11. Miami- Super recruiting class is all entering their junior years, BUT...Jacory Harris (my annual "athletic" QB that I've fallen for) faded down the stretch last year and threw 17 interceptions.

12. TCU- Bring back most from the offense from last year's near-undefeated team, BUT...lose their two best players from defense. Also, tough to go undefeated (see Boise St).

13. Georgia Tech- Add Al Groh as Defensive Coordinator and join the biggest fad in College Football this year by moving to the 3-4 defense (copyright: Alabama), BUT...lost two top draft picks on each side of the ball. Annually underrated because the national media hates the option.

14. Texas- Probably lower than anybody else has them this preseason, BUT...Garrett Gilbert hasn't shown me enough to think he'll be ready this season. They lost a lot from last year.

15. Arkansas- My favorite pro-prospect Quarterback, Ryan Mallett, leads them, BUT...is the rest of the team up to speed with the SEC?

16. Oregon St- Love the lil' squirtster, Jacquizz Rodgers, BUT...have zero experience at Quarterback.

17. Auburn- Return 8 starters on offense and defense, BUT...have zero experience at Quarterback.

18. Clemson- Nasty defensive line (easy way to raise my expectations), BUT...must replace all-everything C.J. Spiller.

19. Houston- Return 8 starters on offense along with QB Case Keenum (who only threw 44 TD's last year), BUT...their defense will most likely be terrible.

20. Florida St- Return all five offensive linemen along with QB Christian Ponder, BUT...it's been a while since the Seminoles were any good.

21. Georgia- Joining the 3-4 party, BUT...might not be enough talent to pull off the move. Also, looking at starting a freshman at QB.

22. Stanford- Return 8 starters on offense including a McGillicuddy, BUT...I'm not sold on Andrew Luck (the near-consensus belief to be the first pick of the 2011 NFL Draft) yet.

23. North Carolina- Was all set to make them my surprise team this year, BUT...two different scandals being investigated means eligibility issues are anybody's guess.

24. Pittsburgh- Running Back Dion Lewis is the real deal, BUT...(say it with me) have zero experience at Quarterback. And they're still coached by Wannnnnnnnnnnnny.

25. Nevada- Slipped them in there because of Colin Kaepernick's game, BUT...probably have little business making the list.

Final Thoughts on Nebraska as well as 2010 College Football predictions coming this week!!!

His Dirkness

College Football Championship Weekend

Nebraska-Texas: First off, I'm a huge fan of Nebraska, so this write-up will most likely be very biased. Texas is obviously the better team so Nebraska will need to follow the mold on how to upset a superior team. I believe the necessary ingredients for a upset go like this (I'm avoiding obvious keys such as turnovers, which is big in every game):

1. Get off to a fast start - An early deficit can be daunting for an inferior team to overcome. It's paramount to not be down by more than one score by first quarter's end, and scoring first would increase chances greatly.

2. Red Zone conversions - Taking full advantage of opportunities means holding the other team to field goals instead of touchdowns while doing the opposite yourself. The superior team will most likely have more opportunities, so the inferior must get more out of their's.

3. Rattle their quarterback - The superior team will most likely win if they play up to their standards, so you must find a way to force them out of their rhythm. The easiest way I know of doing that is to hit their quarterback early and often. Think New York Giants over the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

Biggest hope for Nebraska: They will be able to run the ball. Their offense will fail miserably if they cannot run and setup the pass through playaction, the strategy used successfully over the 5 game winning streak. It will be tough against the Big XII's best run defense.

Biggest fear for Nebraska: Colt McCoy running the ball. If Nebraska is to run their stubborn defense play after play, McCoy will run all over them because of a lack of accountance for the quarterback scrambling.

Prediction: I mentioned Nebraska's stubborn defense - think Baltimore Ravens of 2000. They prefer to beat you with the same look on defense and dare you to beat it. They will have to mix things up and bring blitzes from all angles to try and confuse him. Look for a lot of blitzing from the corners. If Nebraska remains stubborn I think Colt will be able to pick them apart. I think Nebraska might need a score out of their defense or special teams to keep up with the scoring of the Longhorns in this one. Unfortunately, I think Texas has too much talent and too much focus (because of last year) for Nebraska to pull off the upset.

Texas 26, Nebraska 14


Florida-Alabama: All year i have believed Bama to be the better team, but have had doubts creep in due to their close games in the last third of the season. I have now become convinced that this will indeed help Alabama in this game. Florida has only had one really close game this year, against Arkansas, a mediocre team and at home. Alabama has had to scrap for victories against Virginia Tech (neutral), Tennessee, LSU (road), and Auburn (road). Therefore, I give the battletested edge to Bama. I expect Alabama's gameplan to revolve completely around physicality. I think they try to wear them down on offense by pounding the ball, and on defense by hitting anybody in site, including Jesus himself. This gives them their best shot. I expect Florida to continue its strategy of just picking up four yards every play, wooing the defense to sleep, and then hitting them with the big play. I think Bama is up for the challenge. I'm more confident in the unders (41) than either team winning.

Alabama 13, Florida 9


Go Big Red,
His dirkness