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Thursday, November 19, 2015

FanDuel NFL Week 11 - Fuck, Marry, Kill

Scott Freakin' Overfield.

In case you didn't know, he's the dude from Lawrence, KS who took 2nd place on #NotFanDuel and won $438,000 last week. 

When I heard the news, I immediately thought this dude was my new hero! An amateur daily fantasy player from the heartland who hit it big, shoving it in the face of everybody who said only professionals and robots win the big tournaments.

But then I listened to him on 610 with Parkins and C-dot. And I learned this was his first time playing. And he wasn't even tracking his lineup on Sunday night. And he's in last place in his season long league. And his strategy going forward was to play the same lineup that he just won big with. BITTER BEER FACE! (always remembered this as a Foster's commercial, but it's actually a mid-90's Keystone ad.)

The great news for chumps like us? His lineup wasn't even that great. He had Tyler Eifert (3-26) and Marvin Jones (4-44) on his squad. A good reminder that your team doesn't have to be perfect. You just need to hit on a few guys that not many people will be on. And that's my ticket to buying my own island.
On to the Week 11 FMK's (find an older post for FMK explanations)...

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 11 on FanDuel

Quarterback

Fuck - Mark Sanchez ($6400) - It's an NFL backup QB world, we're all just renting space. Sanchez, Brock Osweiler, Alex Smith and Case Keenum are all viable plays this week (I got jokes). But I expect Sanchez to be better than Samuel Bradford. He definitely was last season, when he was the 8th best fantasy QB after taking over for an injured Nick Foles.

Marry - Derek Carr ($7700) - Last week, I was almost exclusively Brady/Rodgers. This week, the top QB's all have question marks. And, unfortunately, the best QB in the NFL isn't playing this week (because the Saints defense won't be taking the field). Meanwhile, Carr has averaged 306 yards and 3.25 TD's his last four weeks, against much better competition than the Lions.

Kill - Tom Brady ($9200) - Interesting spot, but I think I'm staying away. When the Patriots played the Bills in Week 2, Brady dropped back 61 times, while they ran it only 10 times. But New England has now lost their LT, slot WR, and passing game RB. I fear it's possible we see a shift in strategy, but I still might squeeze Brady in a lineup or two.

Facebook pokes - Matthew Stafford, Alex, Case Keenum ($4800!!!)

Running Back

Fuck - Darren McFadden ($6800) - Great chance for a bounce back week here. McFadden burned a lot of people in a surprisingly tough matchup with the Bucs last week, so he might be low owned this week. Run DMc still played 44 of 50 snaps, while the other 6 went to Christine Michael, who just got cut. The Dolphins have the 31st ranked run D, and Tony Romo returns to open up even bigger holes for the league's best OL.

Marry - Adrian Peterson ($8900) - He's heating up! AP has torched the Raiders and Rams the past few weeks, both of which have/had decent run defenses. Now he gets a more favorable matchup in a huge game at home. However, the more shrewd move may be Gurley or Devonta Freeman, since they'll be less owned. Something I always look for on Fridays is ownership %'s from FanDuel's Thursday night leagues. It gives you a good idea of what to expect on Sunday. I used this dude's at Daily Fantasy Cafe and this dude's at RotoCurve. Big help for tournament plays.

Kill - DeMarco Murray ($7600) - The Buccaneers have allowed 3.2 ypc and 0 TD's over their last 4 weeks. They join my list of run defenses to shy away from - Jets, Falcons, Broncos, Jaguars, Seahawks, Steelers, Patriots and now the Bucs.

Facebook pokes - Gurley, Freeman, Chris Ivory, Charcanye West (heavy dosage), Jonathan Stewart, Latavius Murray

Wide Receiver

Fuck - Danny Amendola ($6000) - Curious to see his ownership this week, but he's almost a must start. The Patriots' gameplan last meeting with the Bills was quick, short passes. That meant Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman (combined for 17 catches), but both are both now injured. Amendola is the next Wes Welker Type up, which is essentially the Patriots' new mantra.

Marry - Calvin Johnson ($8100) - The Raiders' pass defense is a joke. Not much more to say here. If I'm not playing McFadden in a lineup, I'll probably be on Dez Bryant.

Kill - Julio Jones / DeAndre Hopkins / AJ Green ($8200-9100) - Some touch matchups for the elite WR's of 2015. Julio draws Vontae Davis. Hopkins draws Darrelle Revis. Green draws Patrick Peterson. Julio is a possibility, but I wouldn't touch the other two.

Facebook pokes - Dez, Mike Evans, Brandon Lafell, Davante Adams (21 targets last week!), Michael Crabtree (heavy dosage), Kamar Aiken, Stevie Johnson, Chris Givens (still the minimum!)

Tight End

Gronk - Jacob Tamme ($5300) - 22 targets over the last two weeks. No, I didn't know he was still in the league either.

Marry - Gronk ($8400) - Oh, that 76 yard TD was glorious last week. Won me some $$$. Again, without Edelman and Lewis, the remaining Patriots are all strong plays this week.

Kill - Antonio Gates ($5900) - Still banged up and the Chiefs have allowed the fewest fantasy points to TE's in 2015.

Facebook pokes - Greg Olsen, Jordan Reed, Eric Ebron, Crockett Gillmore, Martellus Bennett

Kicker

Fuck - Dangerous Dan Bailey ($4600) - Two weeks in a row I'm spending the extra $100 on my low-level kicker. You wanna get nuts? LET'S GET NUTS.

Marry - Steven Hauschka ($5000) - 2+ field goals in 7 of 9 games. Seahawks should run through the 49ers, leading to plenty of chances.

Kill - Matt Prater ($4500) - Missed two XP's last week, which almost kept the 24 year winless streak at Lambeau intact, in the most Lions way possible.

Defense

Fuck - Chiefs ($4400) - FanDuel continues to Rodney Dangerfield KC's defense. Points allowed last 5 weeks: 18, 16, 13, 10, 13. Fantasy points scored last 5 weeks: 11, 7, 12, 14, 19. Giddy up.

Marry - Jets ($4700) - Everybody will be on the Seahawks at home against the 49ers. I'll save my $700 and take the Mean Green against TJ Yates. 

Kill - Goodell Got It Right! Goodell Got It Right! Nobody's favorite segment returns this week due to zero demand. This week? I dunno if I'd say Goodell got it right, per se. But I'm tired of the generic complaint of 2015: "Nobody knows what a catch is anymore." Just about every sports personality has tweeted that at some point this football season. We get it. Shaddup. It's almost as played out as the MJ crying face (ok, not even close - PLEASE STOP). And nobody ever offers a viable solution. Two feet down with possession isn't the answer, because then everything would be a catch. It's a pure judgment call, which is weird, because most judgment calls aren't suitable for replay. But this one is. And it's tough. All that being said, Dez caught it.

Facebook pokes - Bucs, Ravens, Panthers, Eagles, Seahawks

My #1 FanDuel Lineup

QB - Derek Carr
RB - Charcandrick West
RB - Darren McFadden
WR - Calvin Johnson
WR - Michael Crabtree
WR - Danny Amendola
TE - Rob Gronkowski
K - Dan Bailey
DEF - Jets

***If you're new to FanDuel, follow this link and click the yellow tab in the top right corner, and put in promo code DIRK to get special savings and make me monies***

Enter The Milhouse League for Week 11 on FanDuel

Just one thing, Dude - do you have to use so many cuss words?

His Dirkness

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